Ahead of his big speech at the Red Square commemoration of victory in the second world war, the Russian president had three options — none of them good. He could start winding the war in Ukraine down, which would involve accepting that Russia had failed to achieve most of its objectives. He could attempt to rally the troops and the nation, but announce no major change of policy. Or he could escalate, in word or deed — perhaps by announcing a military mobilisation or hinting at the use of nuclear weapons.
