It seems that the hostilities in Ukraine have reached the stage of trench warfare. Although both Russian and Ukrainian defence officials have spoken of an imminent offensive capable of changing the shaky equilibrium on the front lines, much evidence suggests that the confrontation may drag on for many more months at least. At the same time, the West is increasingly consolidated on Ukraine’s side, which indicates that it is unrealistic to think that anti-Russian sanctions will be eased, let alone lifted. In Russia, no serious opposition to the military gamble is visible, and the collapse of the regime, even as a result of intra-elite conflict, does not look likely. And since the room for manoeuvre is rather small, let us discuss short-term forecasts about the state of Russia’s economy in, for example, mid-2023. In doing so, systemic and quantitative aspects are key.
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