Moscow’s official statements since February 24, 2022, concerning possible nuclear escalation should the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) directly intervene in the Russo-Ukrainian war represent a deliberate policy of strategic deterrence. Possible escalation to a world war between the US and Russia is acknowledged by both sides, which are seeking to navigate its avoidance, and featuring in White House deliberations on the level of weapons and hardware support that Washington and its allies can provide to Ukraine. The risk of nuclear conflict caused by the war in Ukraine and the wider US-Russia crisis raises critically important questions about how to judge the level of escalation and discern the red lines on the part of both Moscow and Washington. Thus, the Russo-Ukrainian war is occurring in the context of a potential confrontation between two nuclear powers, with each trying to establish where lies the point of no return on the path toward strategic nuclear exchange (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, October 14, 21, 2021).
Read Full Article »
