Observers commonly describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reckless gamble. But the Putin I came to know in St. Petersburg during the early 1990s was not a gambler in the classic sense, much less a reckless one. Gambling by definition involves the risk of losing. My interactions with and observations of Putin showed that he did not like taking such risks. Rather, he carefully planned his moves, combining intimidation, violence, and legal maneuvers in a systematic way to achieve his ends. Putin only acted once he thought that the outcome was almost certain to be a success and he persisted, using additional resources as necessary, until he achieved his goal.
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