But the war in Ukraine has surprised the experts. Few predicted that Russia would invade when it did, that it would fail as it has, and that Ukraine would endure as it has. None could have predicted the extent of Western support for Ukraine, and even fewer had such a low opinion of Russia’s strategic capabilities that they thought Moscow would fail to respond to Western provocations. The assumptions that underwrote the West’s circumspect approach to prosecuting a proxy war against Russia inside Ukraine were wrong. It is time they were replaced with new assumptions.
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