Amid the specter of war to Europe’s east, experts and the media have focused on the likelihood of Russian military escalation against Ukraine and the prospects of, and available tools for, deterring war. The ubiquitous musings about “what Putin really wants” have been complemented by a wealth of analysis on European energy security, relations with Russia more broadly, and America’s bandwidth to deal with a powerful China. However, we’ve been missing a deeper look at the ripple effects that military escalation (at worst) or the continuation of Russian-Western diplomatic tensions (at best) could have for nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament efforts — regionally and globally.
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