What If Putin Is Bluffing?

What If Putin Is Bluffing?
(Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

The evidence for Vladimir Putin’s apparent intent on reinvading Ukraine is familiar enough, not least because it has been trumpeted by top officials in Washington and London over recent weeks with unusual and increasing emphasis. Some 170,000 Russian troops have been building up on Ukraine’s borders since October. According to U.S. intelligence sources, those troops’ commanders have been given orders to prepare detailed tactical plans for a land invasion. Russian agents have been preparing attacks and provocations on the ground inside Ukraine, and last week the U.K. government accused Moscow of plotting a coup against Kyiv’s government and lining up a group of pro-Kremlin, Ukrainian politicians to take over. Supplies and reinforcements have reportedly been sent to Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Last summer Putin published an essay casting doubt on Ukraine’s validity as an independent country. He’s also on the record as saying that Ukraine’s move toward NATO is an existential threat to Russia’s national security.

 

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