Paul Gregory: There could be a war if there are some miscalculations. It all seems to rest on what Russian president Vladimir Putin has in mind. I've been thinking about Russia’s potential moves in terms of cost-benefit analysis. If you look at the pattern of Putin’s past decisions about war-making, he prefers to engage in small, low-cost wars that yield very few Russian casualties. Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, its annexation of the Crimea in 2014, and its intervention in support of the Assad regime in Syria beginning in 2015 all conform to this model. These conflicts cost very few Russian lives, mostly those of paid mercenaries. Any Russian casualties that were suffered were kept secret by the Kremlin. One of the biggest state secrets in Russia is how many young men have been killed under Putin’s watch. He pays very close attention to these numbers because it is one of his key political vulnerabilities.
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