Russian President Vladimir Putin, following the playbook of 20th century tyrants, is threatening full-scale war against Ukraine to get … something. Putin’s demands keep shifting: no Ukrainian membership in NATO, no Western military relations with Ukraine, a new security order in Europe, no offensive missiles stationed in Ukraine (something the U.S. has not considered or even imagined). The Kremlin’s “red lines” seem improvised. But the underlying demand seems clear: The U.S. and Europe must recognize that Ukraine — not a sovereign nation in Putin’s view — belongs under Kremlin control. To back that up, the Kremlin has built up its forces on Ukraine’s border. Is this an attempt to extract concessions without war? Or is it preparation for real war — a land war in Europe in the dead of winter, during a pandemic, generating a new wave of refugees — that could come with dramatic suddenness?
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