With a quick negotiated settlement unlikely, Ethiopia’s Tigray war is reaching a critical juncture that will permanently scar Ethiopian society and could potentially collapse the country, raising the risk of diplomatic disputes and even violence elsewhere in the Horn of Africa. Just shy of the one-year anniversary of launching the war against the northern Tigray region in November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared a nationwide state of emergency on Nov. 2 amid fears the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied groups were preparing to launch an offensive on Addis Ababa after a series of military advances. Earlier in the day, the Ethiopian capital city’s municipal government gave its residents 48 hours to register their arms and warned them to prepare to defend their neighborhoods.
