Kim Yo-jong, sister of regime leader Kim Jong-un recently denounced the ongoing U.S.-South Korean military training as “hostile war exercises” and warned that continuing the drills “beclouds the way ahead of the North-South relations.” She reiterated her condemnation Tuesday, calling the computer-simulated training the “most vivid expression of the U.S. hostile policy” toward her country and promising Pyongyang would respond to such “perfidious behavior” by presenting a “more serious security threat” to the United States and South Korea. The next day, a statement in regime-run media further warned of a “serious security crisis” if the drills proceed. Meanwhile, Pyongyang stopped answering routine calls on an inter-Korean hotline which has been operational for hardly a month.
If recent history is any indication, Pyongyang has a goal here, and it’s not war with the United States and South Korea. That’s a fight North Korean leadership knows they would lose—badly, and amid enormous suffering. Pyongyang could cause unspeakable harm on its way to defeat, but it is wildly outmatched by the U.S. in both conventional and nuclear might, so defeat would be inevitable.
No, the goal isn’t war. It’s probably restarting stalled diplomacy. On rare occasion, Kim or other members of his government will come close to openly pleading for negotiations. More often, however, they fall into this pattern of provocation (via outrageous rhetoric, weapons testing, or both) as a way to get Washington’s attention and make North Korea enough of a problem to force diplomatic contact.
The Biden administration should answer this latest overture with practical, working-level talks when possible. Negotiations should be South Korean-led and should pursue achievable, buildable goals instead of maximalist, near-term denuclearization demands that will never succeed so long as Kim (understandably) believes his nuclear arsenal is needed to avoid U.S.-forced regime change like that in Iraq and Libya. That means options like nuclear freeze and a lightened sanctions load to help ordinary North Koreans prosper and engage with the outside world. This kind of diplomacy is a viable path to meaningful improvement in U.S.-North Korea and inter-Korean relations, and a path President Biden should walk despite Pyongyang’s theatrics.
But the recent quiet should be a lesson for the Biden team, too. North Korea has been on the back burner as a policy priority during the COVID-19 pandemic, with tellingly little effect. We’re stalemated, and that’s not ideal. The ideal would be a peaceful, free, and denuclearized Korean Peninsula. But from a strategic perspective, this stalemate isn’t harmful to U.S. security. Our conventional and nuclear deterrence is holding, and it can continue to hold indefinitely.
Even with nuclear weapons, North Korea doesn’t pose an imminent threat to the United States and can’t pose an existential one. Kim has made clear that what he wants is regime (and personal) survival and that he sees the nuclear arsenal as insurance against foreign military intervention in his cruel and absurd autocracy. For all his bluster, he knows an unprovoked attack would be met by overwhelming U.S. retaliation. He knows starting a war would end his reign, if not his life.
My suspicion is that Pyongyang has chosen a poor moment for its attempt to provoke new talks. With the COVID-19 caseload accelerating again, the Biden administration may not want to take up U.S.-North Korea engagement in earnest this year. As far as our national security is concerned, that’s fine. Until Washington is ready to return to the negotiating table with realistic demands and concessions, Biden can content himself to let South Korea take the lead on engaging Pyongyang and to rely on U.S. deterrence to keep us safe.
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Bonnie Kristian is a fellow at Defense Priorities, contributing editor at The Week, and columnist at Christianity Today. Her writing has also appeared at CNN, NBC, USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, and Defense One, among other outlets. The views expressed are the author's own.
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