One secret to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) longevity has been its ability to continually adapt to the ever-changing external security environment and needs of its members. This is all the more needed today in a world that is at once more complex and more interconnected. Over the next decade, NATO’s ability to adapt and remain relevant for the future will depend on both external and internal drivers of cohesion and division. External drivers include the threats and opportunities facing the alliance and its individual members, the availability of other competent security and defense partners, and the degree of countervailing influence by competitors. Internal drivers for NATO include shared identity and values, political cohesion around shared interests, the presence or absence of U.S. leadership, the degree of responsibility sharing in NATO; and the orientation and cohesiveness of national governments. Taken together, these factors create centrifugal and centripetal forces that can alternately drive NATO member countries together or pull them apart.
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