Although Russia’s Caspian Flotilla remains the dominant naval force on the Caspian, it is not the only one that matters anymore. All four other littoral states—Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan—have been building up their own naval presences, particularly since various intra-regional disputes over access to oil and natural gas resources and infrastructure remain lively. And despite the Caspian countries’ joint commitment to keeping other powers out of future negotiations on the status of the sea, a shift in the geopolitical situation could eventually change that. Of particular concern to Moscow are the possible future roles of Turkey, which is a major shipbuilding country, and of China, which views the Caspian as an integral part of its “One Belt, One Road” program (also known as the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI). Moreover, as Russian observers note, the non-Russian littoral states already have one advantage: their ships, while less numerous and powerful now, are far more modern than those of Russia’s Caspian Flotilla.
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