Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s decision to force down an airliner so as to be able to arrest journalist Roman Protasevich—the editor-in-chief of the influential anti-regime Telegram channel NEXTA (see EDM, September 23, 2020 and May 24, 2021)—sparked mixed reactions in Moscow. Those diverging opinions owe to the fact that Belarus’s highly provocative special operation, though almost universally condemned elsewhere, presents the Kremlin with both new opportunities as well as fresh problems. On the one hand, it leaves Minsk more internationally isolated than it has ever been—and thus further dependent on Russia. But on the other hand, Lukashenka’s action uncomfortably echoes certain things Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has done, which makes the Belarusian leader a more problematic ally for Moscow and an even more problematic candidate to lead Belarus into a closer union state with Russia (APN Severo Zapad, May 24). How the Kremlin resolves this contradiction remains to be seen, yet it may well involve an effort to extract Western approval (implicit or explicit) for a Russian move to replace Lukashenka. Such an outcome could give Moscow a double victory by involving the West in a Russian operation as well as by installing someone in Minsk who will prove less skillful than Lukashenka has heretofore been in playing off the two sides to keep himself in power and Belarus independent.
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