Reports claiming that Russia will, within a few weeks, welcome Iran as a new member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) may be premature, but they are still likely to be realized in the not-too-distant future, some Russian analysts argue (RitmEurasia, February 26). These reports are liable to be confirmed, first and foremost, because Iran’s accession to the EEU would help both countries to more readily counter Western sanctions as well as to cooperate in the Caucasus in the wake of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. At the same time, including Iran in this Moscow-led political-economic grouping would have profound geopolitical consequences. For one thing, the EEU is Russia’s primary tool for integrating the former Soviet space, so the accession of the first non-post-Soviet country to the grouping would already be noteworthy—to say nothing of the Islamic Republic’s pariah status internationally. But even more importantly, Iran’s membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian bloc would represent a new challenge to Western and especially Turkish efforts to promote east-west trade across the Caucasus and Caspian, by buttressing Moscow and Tehran’s rival interest in supporting north-south trans-regional routes.
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