More likely than not, the Joe Biden administration will have a North Korea crisis on its hands within its first year. CSIS data show that North Korea conducts more missile and nuclear provocations in U.S. presidential transition years. Less than three months after President Barack Obama took office, North Korea launched a long-range rocket, and six weeks after that conducted a nuclear test. Three weeks after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, North Korea launched a medium-range ballistic missile in February 2017 and later carried out a hydrogen bomb test. President-elect Biden early on will need to identify a strategy that uses the full spectrum of diplomacy and coercion to prevent the North’s acquisition of a survivable nuclear force, bolster deterrence and defensive capabilities, and stop the most threatening elements of the program.
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