Turkey's Syria Incursion: An Open Door for ISIS?

“People who travel north through these areas bid their family goodbye, in case they do not return,” said Samir, a lawyer living in Hajjin, south-eastern Syria, referring to areas in the countryside of Deir Ezzor. Worrying dynamics are emerging on the ground in northeast Syria. After losing its last pockets of territory, the self-proclaimed Islamic State shifted its strategy to an increasingly robust insurgency, which by now threatens to undermine security across the area. Its operations have taken the form of targeted attacks, including roadside bombings, hit-and-run assaults, and assassinations by fighters embedded in tribal communities. Locals often tolerate the presence of Islamic State operatives in their midst out of fear of retaliation, local residents told us during our regular visits to the area. The Syrian Democratic Forces, the umbrella group of Kurdish, Arab, and Syriac militias under the leadership of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units that defeated the Islamic State and controls the region, have been unable to fully address this growing problem. Furthermore, their willingness and ability to conduct effective counter-terrorism raids for now depends on a continued American presence, even at reduced levels, and on Turkey refraining from launching renewed offensives on the area.