The outcome of negotiations between Greece’s new anti-austerity Greek government and the Troika that is administering their bailout program remains unknown. What is known, however, is that the two sides’ stated goals are mutually incompatible: The Syriza-led government wants debt relief, while the creditors demand repayment. And that means that leading up to February and March, when Greece’s next tranche of money is to be repaid to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be very tense. There is a set of mutually agreeable outcomes in there somewhere, even if getting to one of them will be difficult. But the market impact of any outcome will be limited unless Greece defaults and the talk of exiting the eurozone becomes realistic.
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