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Ten months ago, the Iranian presidential elections shook the country, and Iran made world headlines for weeks. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was officially declared the winner, leading immediately to huge protests by supporters of two other candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
During the months when all four candidates were campaigning, Mousavi and Karroubi chose green as their election campaign color; hence their supporters were nicknamed “the greens.” Hundreds of thousands of green supporters poured into the streets of Iran’s main cities, notably Tehran, refusing to accept the results declared by the government. Both Mousavi and Karroubi demanded the cancellation of the election results. Three days after the elections, a huge protest rally held in Tehran brought together, even by conservative estimates, more than 3 million people. Three days later, an even bigger crowd packed the center of Tehran.
During the first week of the green protests, many Iranians as well as Western observers were baffled. Some moderate Iranian leaders, including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged Mousavi to show restraint and understanding and to convey protests through official channels. Mousavi and his representatives met with the supreme leader separately and were strongly advised by him to call off the street protests and instead accept official arbitration by the Council of Guardians, which was in charge of the elections. The ayatollah’s pledge to the green leaders went unheeded and both Mousavi and Karroubi pressed to void the election results.
It appears that from the second week of the crisis on, the government changed its tactics. Rather than appeal to the green leaders for restraint and calm, it decided on a crackdown. Hundreds of green activists were rounded up; nearly all of Mousavi’s aides and campaign organizers were detained and taken to the notorious Evin prison. Still the protests and street rallies went on, despite the detentions.
Next, the security forces went into action. Dozens of demonstrators were shot dead and many more were arrested. It was now the turn of the moderate Iranian leaders to call for restraint and reconciliation. But the government, which appeared to have won the street, pressed for further crackdowns. The protestors who had been barred from demonstrating on the streets now exploited official rallies on religious and national occasions to demonstrate against the government. The latter in turn pressed for more arrests and sought to impose additional restraints on both Mousavi’s and Karroubi’s movements as well other green and reformist figures.
In retrospect, the events on the holy day of Ashura, the most important day in the Shiite calendar, marked a complete change in the government’s approach toward the post-June elections crisis. The main feature of Ashura has always been huge processions by mourners. It was simply impossible for the Iranian authorities to ban street processions on Ashura. The security forces maintained a presence but kept their distance, largely leaving the streets to the protestors, and the latter took advantage of the occasion after months of beatings and arrests and demonstrated bitterly against the government. There were casualties, including 10 dead.
The intensity as well the bitterness of these December 27 protests convinced the authorities that they had no choice but to crack down yet further on the opposition. Hundreds of journalists, Mousavi aides and supporters, student activists, artists, bloggers, human rights supporters and women activists were detained following the Ashura protests. The government also entered into an ideological war with the greens. The protests on Ashura were depicted as anti-religious. Three days after Ashura, anti-green protestors filled the main street of Tehran protesting against those who had abused and desecrated the holiness of the occasion. The green leaders were dubbed “traitors” and “conspirators,” Zionist agents and US lackeys.
In the days that followed, Mousavi issued a statement granting de facto recognition of Ahmadinejad’s government. His statement was tantamount to acceptance of the June 12 election results. Karroubi followed suit and took a similar stand.
All eyes were now on February 11, the anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution. Contrary to many expectations, the anniversary passed peacefully, with hundreds of thousands supporting the revolution. Excited by the huge number of supporters, the Iranian leaders took this as a show of support for themselves – a somewhat hasty conclusion that might prove to be a gross misjudgment.
After its apparent success on February 11, the government’s spirits rose to a level unprecedented since the June polls. All talk of national reconciliation were shelved. The state media as well government supporters simply began referring to the green movement as “the conspiracy” and to its nominal leaders as “the conspirators.” On the face of it, the hardliners appeared to have won the battle.
But the war continues. An observer who witnessed the streets of Tehran last summer may wonder today where all those green supporters have gone; you see no trace of them on the streets of Tehran. Still, it may prove premature to conclude that they no longer exist.
Sadegh Zibakalam is a professor of political science at Tehran University. This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter that publishes views on Middle Eastern and Islamic issues.
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