Andy Langenkamp is a global policy analyst for ECR Research.
Politicians have become aware that European progress is reversible. Some have even uttered the word "war." Global trends, European developments, and national politics are compressed into an icy snowball that could topple the European edifice.
Individualization of society has led to its fragmentation. As a consequence, political leaders have a weaker grip on their constituencies. In addition, not so long ago, people were fairly certain they would become more prosperous as they got older, while their children would do even better. Now we see great uncertainty about maintaining living standards, let alone improving them.
We are also witnessing a new global order emerging. America and China will eventually be on an equal footing, and a handful of other powers will also make their influence felt. Non-state actors such as Google and the Islamic State group will play significant roles too. Nation-states will be the protagonists for the foreseeable future, and authoritarian regimes use businesses as pawns of the state. However, borderless organizations, networks, and corporations play states against each other and are becoming more powerful.
These developments fuel opposition to free trade, open borders, and the political establishment, and in Europe, this challenge takes place on a continent already struggling with crises of sovereignty, identity, and security. The euro crisis appears to be chronic. Europe has to untangle a gigantic financial-economic knot if it wants to strengthen the eurozone and the common market against a background of structural weaknesses, nationalism, and populism.
Moreover, Europe's foreign policy is haphazard and often non-existent. This scuppers any chance that Europe can have a positive influence on the conflicts that surround it. Strong foreign policy is also hampered by the unhinging of the European balance of power -- a hinge that swung around the Berlin-Paris axis, but has warped as economic issues came to the foreground and Germany started to dominate. Now that security and traditional politics are returning to prominence, France could seize its chance to claw back some of its standing. However, before a new equilibrium can be created, we could see mounting tensions. Britain has moved further away from Europe's epicenter, so London can do little to adjust the balance.
Europeans not seeing themselves as European citizens further undermines Europe's chances of addressing its crises. Lack of European citizenship is increasingly problematic, as solidarity comes at a higher price in times of political and economic insecurity.
The financial crisis has widened the abyss between the European Union and the what it would call its people. If Europe fails to deal with the migrant crisis and the threat posed by terrorism, people will turn their backs on Brussels even more. They feel increasingly detached and unsafe. Many think their own country is merely a plaything tossed about by political and economic waves. States disagree on what problems they face, how these should be addressed, and to what extent they are prepared to transfer sovereignty.
This translates into national political risks. The French regional elections may not have provided Marine Le Pen with the victories she was hoping for, but her Front National speaks to the feelings of millions of French people fearing social-economic insecurity, the destabilizing forces of globalisation and the threat of terrorism. Le Pen has already pulled the mainstream parties somewhat to the populist right, and she now aims to upend the establishment in May 2017, when French voters take to the polls.
At the other side of the French border, Spain is in political disarray, with political struggles in Catalonia and at the national level after inconclusive elections. Catalonia won't call for new elections, as President Artur Mas stepped down, but Mas' successor -- separatist leader Carles Puigdemont -- could renew tensions with Madrid. Already, chances are that we will witness new national elections. It remains to be seen whether the latest Catalan developments and new parliamentary elections will lead to stable governance.
In Germany, regional elections can further undermine Chancellor Merkel's position. She has been under fire within her governing coalition, and the German population is starting to grumble. Europe also has to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom on EU reforms. The latter are meant to ensure that the Brits vote in a coming referendum to stay in the European Union. Some polls show a majority of the British now think a so-called Brexit would be a good idea. Greece could also foment trouble. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' government holds a majority of just three seats parliament; in November it faced a national strike; and the refugees crisis threatens the country's stability.
We're not done yet. The Netherlands will hold a referendum about the Association Treaty between Ukraine and the European Union in the spring. This is inconvenient as the EU is still at geopolitical loggerheads with Russia, Ukraine continues to be unstable, while Holland has been chairing the European Union since Jan. 1. Elections are due in Slovakia, Romania, and Ireland. Plus, it remains to be seen how the new Polish and Portuguese governments will behave. The Polish combination of right-wing populism and left-wing economic policy is worrying, and the Portuguese minority government leans on communists.
The European economy can carry on for the time being, due to support from low oil prices, the euro's weakness, the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy, and the end of austerity in many countries. These supports will fall away eventually. Europe already has reverted to muddling on instead of muddling through. Soon, it might just start to sink in the mud.
(AP photo)
