Furthermore, the new Polish government must show if it will affirm the views of pessimists who predict Poland will become more authoritarian and Euroskeptic - perhaps taking its cues from hardline Polish Prime Minister Viktor Orban - and institute irresponsible left-wing economic policies such as lowering the pension age and nationalizing companies. Things may not be quite as bad as they seem. The ruling party is Atlanticist and anti-Russian. In order to get the backing of Western Europe in riding a hard line towards the Kremlin, Poland must be prepared to compromise. But do keep in mind that the ruling party's puppet master - Jarolsaw KaczyÅ?ski - can always be counted on for a sour surprise.
Finally, Greece is causing problems again. Within a couple of months the Greek government has managed to run weeks behind schedule on implementing agreed reforms. Therefore, I cannot rule out that the Greek matter will again become a major European problem.
A continent out of balance
Some of the risks for 2017 and beyond are already visible. Europe still has to figure out how to deal with German dominance. It was telling that Merkel was basically acting as the head of EU foreign policy in negotiations with Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. The European power configuration and the Berlin-Paris axis are completely out of kilter, and this has unnerved many politicians. The European Union could stumble if Europe doesn't find a way to accommodate the leading and important economic and political roles Berlin has taken over the last few years. This can only be achieved if other countries act as counterbalance. It is thus of the upmost importance that Britain remains an EU member and that France stages an economic resurgence. The French are making headway with reforms of the labor market and other areas, but I doubt these measures will return France to an equal footing with Germany.
A second long-term risk for Europe is the growing gap between the EU institutions and the European peoples. The popularity of the Union is dwindling, and Euroskeptic populism is on the rise. The measure of this matter will be taken during the May 2017 French presidential elections, which Le Pen has a real chance of winning. If Le Pen makes the Élysée Palace her home, it will become even more difficult to reform the eurozone.
The final longer-term risk is the instability at the borders of the European Union, and the associated dangers that were so tragically shown in Paris. The European Union is surrounded by chaos, violence, and volatility: in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Turkey, the former Yugoslav republics, Ukraine, and Russia. These nations will demand lots of attention, money, political capital, and sometimes even military efforts from the European Union. The Union's foreign policy hasn't much impressed, and it will probably not amount to much in the years ahead either.
