Finally, regional elections are scheduled for France in December. Marine Le Pen's already favorable prospects will most likely have been given a lift after the events in Paris. Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front party, will probably win the presidency of France's northernmost region, strengthening her position as a presidential candidate in 2017.
Merkel to trip?
In 2016, Slovakia, Ireland, and Romania are among the nations that will hold parliamentary elections. These will be closely monitored for further signs of a European electorate that is fed up with the traditional parties and opts for politicians who favor the outer boundaries of the political spectrum.
On a lower level, in Germany, five states will hold elections in 2016. They will also be seen as proxy votes on the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The chancellor's approval ratings have already dipped as a result of the refugee crisis, and she's facing opposition within her coalition. If her Christian Democratic Union loses in the regional votes, Merkel will have to deal with more internal attacks. Until recently, everybody was assuming she would carry on governing until the next election without facing any struggles. For the first time, analysts now dare to speculate the chancellor may trip along the way.
The migrant crisis (and of course acts of terrorism inside Germany) would be the obvious factor that could bring Merkel down. I very much doubt anyone can stem the flow of desperate people trying to make it into Europe, and terrorists sneaking into the Continent alongside them. Europe simply lacks the conviction, the popular support, and the resources needed to stop the war in Syria, tame the Taliban in Afghanistan, and turn around the war in Iraq. Nor will the United States and others carry out such a task. This means the refugee crisis will continue to cause security, political, social, moral, and economic problems that will probably be dealt with more on an ad-hoc basis than by implementing a plan that relocates migrants already in Europe, secures external borders, and addresses the root causes of the migrant flows.
There are three other things to monitor closely in the year ahead. First of all, the United Kingdom could vote on its EU membership as soon as 2016. I still root for a victory for the In camp.
