If it swims, quacks, and has feathers, chances are it's a duck. And it's going to stay a duck.
As we analyze President Barack Obama's decision to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Nov. 9, we would do well to remember that.
After seven years of soap opera-style dramatics, Netanyahu and Obama won't change their dysfunctional relationship easily, or perhaps at all.
But as counterintuitive as it may seem, particularly after the bitter battle over the Iran deal, the U.S.-Israeli relationship may actually improve in the months remaining on the president's clock. Obama wants to make nice -- not because he likes Netanyahu or his policies; but because it serves Obama's interests in his final year. Here's why.
Iran: A Unifying Factor? The principal issue over which Obama and Netanyahu have fought may actually bring them closer together now. Obama has beaten Netanyahu on the Iran deal and wants to facilitate the implementation of his key foreign policy accomplishment and preempt Congress's efforts to impose additional sanctions. Netanyahu hates the deal, but he needs to show that his fight with the U.S. administration, while a loss, was still worthwhile.
That means closer cooperation -- both in terms of what the administration will give Israel, and on how the two sides will cooperate to ensure Iran doesn't cheat and expand its influence in the region. If the two can agree on a joint approach -- and each has an interest in doing so -- they may find themselves working together, rather than at cross-purposes. Indeed, Obama cannot afford to become Iran's lawyer, rationalizing its bad behavior away. And Netanyahu has a real interest, particularly now that Russia is supplying military aid to Bashar Assad's regime and perhaps to Hezbollah, in cooperating with Washington to check Iran and its clients. Indeed, once the Israelis start accepting the U.S. goods offered as reassurance for the Iran deal, it will be harder for the prime minister to attack the president's policies.
Why Fight Over the Peace Process? The other area of contention between Obama and Netanyahu is the peace process, and specifically, Israel's settlement activity. Secretary of State John Kerry may want to keep the hope of a two-state solution alive, but the chances of a serious negotiation between Israel and the Palestinians -- let alone an agreement on issues such as Jerusalem or refugees -- are slim to none. Still, as he leaves the White House, the last thing Obama wants is a third intifada, and the same goes for Netanyahu. Whether they can preempt major violence is far from certain. Coddling the Israelis won't necessarily stop Israel's bad policies toward the West Bank. But going to war with Netanyahu over settlements, pushing for a UN Security Council resolution on Palestinian statehood, or joining Palestinians in an effort to isolate Israel, will almost certainly increase Netanyahu's determination to push back. The next year is about keeping the Palestinians and Israelis calm and preventing the Palestinian issue from exploding -- not about resolving it. Unless Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas find a way to resume negotiations because they both need and want them, keeping the West Bank quiet will be a huge challenge.
Elect a D in the White House: Obama's not running again; but if he wants to increase the chances of getting a Democrat elected in 2016, he will probably want to lower the tension level with Israel. Republican and Democratic candidates will try to outbid each other in declaring their love and support for Israel. This week's Republican debate had at least half a dozen candidates doing so, and hammering Obama on what the Republicans see as his anti-Israeli policies works as a campaign issue. Not ceding the Israeli issue to Republicans, particularly if Hillary Clinton is identified closely with the Iran deal, would be smart politics for the Democrats. The Republicans would love for the next year to see a continuing crisis between a Democratic president and an Israeli prime minister.
Obama Needs all the help he can get in his final year: A year and two months from now we will have a new president. And this president will address a Middle East in far worse shape than the one Obama inherited. Forget new breakthroughs. Israel remains critically important to the administration's efforts to avoid breakdowns -- on Iran, the Palestinians, and even in Syria now that Russia has upped the ante. Bottom line: President Obama doesn't need a war with Bibi. He doesn't like the prime minister, hates his policies toward the Palestinians, and remembers his efforts to sink the Iran deal. But the president wants to avoid leaving the presidency with the Middle East in still worse condition. And that means counting to ten before exploding, and trying to work with a difficult and frustrating Netanyahu rather going to war with him.
(AP photo)
