Today the Egyptian government officially inaugurated what has been dubbed "Suez Canal II," an extension of the original canal that will accommodate two-way traffic and more development and capital projects along the important shipping route. The canal upgrade was greeted with much fanfare, and was attended by the likes of French President Francois Hollande and North Korea's speaker of parliament, Kim Yong Nam.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has much riding on the new canal's success, as do the Egyptian investors who footed the lion's share of the project's $9 billion bill. The Egyptian economy has stumbled and staggered since the 2011 revolution, enduring two regime changes amid waves of protest, violence, political suppression, and now terrorism. Sissi -- the former general who seized power in a 2013 coup d'etat -- insists that other agreements reached earlier this year with foreign investors are finally being realized, but his government's GDP growth projections of 5 percent for 2015 have thus far fallen well short.
Moreover, there isn't much evidence that the Suez upgrade will result in the windfall of growth and gains promised by Sissi. The new canal route will likely reduce container ship travel times by just a few hours, and container shipping on the whole is in a kind of global glut. Other factors -- such as oil prices and the strength of the Chinese economy -- have a much greater effect on global trade than waterway access.
The coming months and years will make or break Sissi's government, which has been propped up by the largesse of Gulf monarchies and the United States. The Egyptian president's reputation -- which Sissi has worked diligently to craft both at home and in Washington -- is predicated on his ability to deliver stability and economic growth in Egypt. He has thus far failed at both.
This is bad news for a country with high youth unemployment and a failing education system. The regime has been under pressure from an Islamic State affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula, and there's evidence to suggest that the group is pulling not only from the peninsula's marginalized Bedouin community, but from the disaffected across the country. Political persecution of Islamists has led to radicalization and an increasing predilection for violence among its youth, pushing a once vibrant political movement back out to the fringes.
In a Middle East consumed by conflict, the United States is once again counting on an Egyptian strongman to keep the largest Arab country in the world in line. Can he deliver?
