You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave!
--"Hotel California" by The Eagles
Today, the European Union welcomed its 28th member, Croatia. For good or for worse, joining the European Union is a lot like Hotel California: You can mentally check out (e.g., like the UK), but you can't ever really leave.
Croats celebrated the accession, and for good reason. The future of this relatively poor, war-torn country will undoubtedly be brighter as a member of the EU. For all its flaws, the EU gets some big things right, most notably its single market. This alone will give a long-term boost to the Croatian economy, although there may be some initial growing pains.
From the EU's perspective, expanding into the former Yugoslav countries was something of a no-brainer. The entire point of the European Union is to spread peace and prosperity by unifying the continent politically and economically. The "powder keg" Balkans are a part of Europe and, hence, their joining the EU was never really in question.
Timing, of course, is another matter entirely. Was this the right time for Croatia to join?
Croatian government bonds are considered "junk," the unemployment rate is around 20 percent, and the nation is still suffering from a five-year-long recession. Endemic corruption is also a big problem. Naturally, many in Europe are concerned that they just admitted another Greece-like country into the club.
Currently, pessimism seems to be winning the day. In an op-ed for the New York Times, Alan Riley opined that EU membership may cause more problems than it solves. In particular, he fears that young Croats will take advantage of the EU's "freedom-of-movement" policy by leaving for greener pastures, which may in turn anger western Europeans who aren't always fond of eastern European immigrants. (For example, an anti-Polish sentiment is particularly palpable in the UK.) As a result of brain drain, Croatia may become, as Riley calls it, a "permanently dysfunctional member state" and the last country to join the EU.
That's almost certainly wrong. Regardless of how bad things get in the Eurozone, many countries outside the EU are clamoring to get in. Sooner or later, all of the former Yugoslav countries will join. Eventually, Turkey and Ukraine may, as well.
Apparently, the world's largest economy still has a lot going for it.
(AP image)
