A new report from Havard's Linda Bilmes estimates the total cost of both wars at between $4 and $6 trillion. Here's how Bilmes frames the accounting:

This includes long-term medical care and disability compensation for service members, veterans and families, military replenishment and social and economic costs. The largest portion of that bill is yet to be paid. Since 2001, the US has expanded the quality, quantity, availability and eligibility of benefits for military personnel and veterans. This has led to unprecedented growth in the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Defense budgets. These benefits will increase further over the next 40 years. Additional funds are committed to replacing large quantities of basic equipment used in the wars and to support ongoing diplomatic presence and military assistance in the Iraq and Afghanistan region. The large sums borrowed to finance operations in Iraq and Afghanistan will also impose substantial long-term debt servicing costs.

Bilmes notes that the U.S. has already borrowed $2 trillion to pay for both wars, making it a significant component of the $9 trillion in debt the U.S. has larded onto its balance sheet since 2001. Of this, an estimated $87 billion was wasted in Iraq reconstruction projects and $61 billion was siphoned off in boondoggle Afghan projects.

"Throughout the past decade," Bilmes writes, "the United States has underestimated the length, difficulty, cost and economic consequences of these wars, and has failed to plan how to pay for them."

(AP Photo)

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In what's being dubbed (perhaps optimistically) as a "carefully prepared covert operation" the U.S. and European powers are directing increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments from Gulf states to Syria's rebels, the AP is reporting. Arms shipments to Syrian rebels have doubled over the past four weeks as the rebels have encroached on the Syrian capital.

The division of labor reportedly looks like this: Saudi Arabia and Qatar fund the weapons purchases from Croatia or black market arms dealers in Europe; Jordan and Turkey provide land access for the weapons to enter Syria, while the U.S. and Europe 'coordinate' who gets what. According to an "Arab official, a diplomat and military experts" quoted by the AP, only "secular fighters" are receiving the weapons. How that is ensured, however, was not revealed.

The Syrian rebels have advanced to Damascus and the covert effort was being framed as giving the rebels the needed muscle to secure supply lines between Jordan and Damascus and then make a final move on the capital:

The opening of the weapons pipeline through Jordan “provides a fresh approach” to Syrian rebels, said Shashank Joshi, a military expert who has been monitoring the arms flow for two years for Britain’s Royal United Services Institute think tank.

“This way opens a new front in southern Syria. It breaks free from connections with Saudi and Lebanese middlemen (in Turkey), while ensuring the weapons get to those rebels with secular, or nationalist ties, rather than the jihadists,” he said.

Sweden-based arms trafficking expert Hugh Griffiths, who has been monitoring the arms flow and collecting independent data, said some 3,500 tons of military equipment have been shipped to the rebels since the traffic began in early 2012. He said there were at least 160 airlifts of weapons deliveries from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and later Jordan, with the most recent being a shipment of unspecified material from Qatar to Turkey on Sunday.

“Nothing compares in terms of the intensity of these flights over months-long periods at a time,” said Griffiths, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Two prominent independent researchers monitoring weapons traffic — Eliot Higgins in Britain and Nic Jenzen-Jones in Australia — said Croatian arms began appearing only recently in Syria. They include M60 recoilless guns, M79 Osa rocket launchers, and RBG-6 grenade launchers, which all are powerful anti-tank weapons.

No word yet on how Washington plans to cope with a failed state in Syria that is awash in the weapons it's helping to pour in.

(AP Photo)

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RCW is looking for two interns to assist with daily editorial and social media duties:

The Editorial Intern will help the RCW team review and produce all site content. This includes syndicated articles, op-ed submissions, lists, photo galleries and more. A background in journalism and/or international relations is preferred, but not required.

The Social Media Intern will help the editorial staff update the site's daily video content, as well as help promote and spread RCW content around the web. A basic understanding of social media and sharing platforms -- such as Facebook, Twitter, Reddit and Google+ -- is required. A background in international relations is preferred, but not required.

Both positions are ideal for college students, graduate students and graduates who are pursuing a career in online media or a related field. Please email a copy of your resume and a brief cover letter to ksullivan@realclearpolitics.com, and specify which position you are applying for. These internships are part-time, unpaid telecommuting positions.

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Ever since China imposed an export ban on critical rare earth minerals to Japan (minerals Japan's high-tech industry feeds on for products such as GPS chips and solar panels), China has seen its resource weapon lose considerable potency. Even after lifting the ban in 2010, China has not recouped its lost shipments. In 2012, Japanese imports of Chinese rare earths fell to their lowest level in 10 years thanks to Japan's efforts to diversify sources, recycle more aggressively and use alternatives.

Now things are about to get worse for China.

According to Reuters, Japanese researchers have found "astronomically high levels" of rare earths in the ground near an island Southeast of Tokyo. (The thing with "rare" earths, as RCW contributor Daniel McGroarty has explained, is that they aren't rare at all.)

Of course, these resources aren't immediately exploitable, but they do bolster Japan's ability to insulate itself from resource-bullying. It also underscores just how foolish it is for states to wield resource weapons in the first place. The importers, like Japan, suffer in the short-term but over the long-term, it's the producing states that wind up hurting the most as alternative measures are implemented.

(AP Photo)

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An interactive graphic from Pitch Interactive maps out all the known drone strikes that the U.S. has launched in Pakistan, including the estimated civilian death toll. It uses data from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and the New America Foundation as its source. (Graphic Detail has a nice backgrounder on how the project came together.)

According to the Bureau, there have been 366 U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan responsible for the deaths of between 2,537-3,581 people. Of those, an estimated 411-884 were civilians and 168-197 were children.

These figures are not without their critics but they are the closest thing we have to a rough approximation of U.S. drone activity.

(Image: Pitch Interactive)

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The cyber Cold War between the U.S. and China moved from the murky confines of cyberspace into the real world after the security firm Mandiant published a report that directly implicated China's military in a host of cyber mischief.

Now the AFP is reporting that China's military had some help from researchers at Shanghai Jiatong University, one of China's top universities. It appears university researchers teamed with members of China's hacking unit to explore ways to break into computer systems and detect against outside intrusions.

For its part, the U.S. has been beefing up its own cyber capabilities. The Pentagon is expanding its cyber-security force five-fold and the Department of Homeland Security is now trying to lure high school-age hackers to consider plying their trade for Uncle Sam.

(AP Photo)

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Last year, I wrote a piece about a growing trend of nationalism in Hungary that has manifested as intolerance toward ethnic minorities and anyone perceived to be an outsider. I received some flak for that article, mostly because critics didn't like the anecdotal nature of my piece. For instance, Yong Kwon, a freelance writer for Asia Times, accused me of misdiagnosing the real issue in Hungary, which in his opinion is economic trouble, not an attitude problem. And he ended his commentary with this delightful quote:

"[I]t pissed me off that ... he complains about a bad travel experience and turns it into a wider political commentary. What a jerk."

I won't contest the fact that I could be a jerk; unfortunately, that doesn't make Mr. Kwon correct. Despite his robust defense of Hungary, hard data suggests that ethnic intolerance is indeed a widespread phenomenon.

As reported by Benjamin Ward, a December 2012 poll asked Hungarians if they would allow their children to be friends with Jews, Africans and Roma (Gypsies). Their answer was, to paraphrase, "No, no and hell no." Specifically, 46 percent rejected friendship with Jews, 58 percent with Africans and a whopping 68 percent with Roma.

Lydia Gall of Human Rights Watch expounds:

A prominent columnist calls for a "final solution" for Hungary’s Roma population. A member of parliament calls for drawing up a list of Jewish people involved in Hungarian politics. Two-thirds of those asked in an opinion poll say they wouldn’t let their child be friends with a Romani child. Another poll suggests a similar number believe Jewish people have too much influence. One doesn’t have to be a student of history to be worried about the growing climate of intolerance in Hungary.

Gall's post goes on to detail how Hungarian fans at a soccer match chanted "dirty Jews" when their team played Israel.

Racism, specifically anti-Roma and anti-Semitic sentiments, isn't uncommon throughout much of Europe. But when it is openly preached by influential people and politicians, something has gone terribly wrong. Of course, Hungary's economic problems aren't helping the situation. In times of trouble, people often fall back on prejudices and blame ethnic minorities and foreigners for their troubles. This has even happened in the United States.

And to rub a little extra salt in the wound, the Hungarian Parliament recently amended the constitution to limit both the freedom of speech and the power of the constitutional court to review laws. Needless to say, a deeply racist country that is becoming increasingly autocratic is not headed in a healthy direction.

What's the solution? Better economic times for Hungary will certainly help. But to tackle racism, there is only one solution: open ridicule. Burying our heads in the sand and pretending it isn't a big problem yielded disastrous results in the not-so-distant past.

(AP Photo: Viktor Orban)

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That's the thesis of Claudia Senik, a professor at the Paris School of Economics. In a forthcoming paper, Senik argues that France's "cultural mentality" and educational system inspire miserableness among its citizens.

Despite a high standard of living, the French have gloomy expectations for 2013, a Gallup poll found. They also have a high depression and suicide rate.

As Jamie Doward and Hussein Kesvani report in the Guardian, Senik drew her conclusions about French misery from a survey of opinion data:

Crucially, however, Senik finds that French people who live in other countries report lower happiness levels than the natives, while immigrants who move to France are more happy than the indigenous population. The longer immigrants live in France and become part of its society, the less happy they claim to be.

"This suggests that there is something in the culture that makes French people miserable," claims Senik.

A low level of life satisfaction among the French has been documented extensively as far back as the 1970s. One theory – that language could be a factor – appears to have been discounted by Senik. She finds that French-speakers in Switzerland or Canada are as happy as people from other communities.

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As President Obama stumps for a resumption of the peace process, Gallup has published some polling on the sentiment in the region and finds "broad support" for such talks.

Very few Israelis or Palestinians are hopeful that such a deal can be obtained, however. Israelis (both Jewish and non-Jewish) are more optimistic than Palestinians, with Gaza Palestinians being the least hopeful of the bunch (not surprising, given that they are also most opposed to the process).

Gallup also found that seven-in-10 West Bank Palestinians "broadly supported" the idea of a two-state solution, while 85 percent of non-Jewish Israelis favored that outcome. Jewish Israelis were less disposed to the idea, with 52 percent saying they favored it and 40 percent saying they opposed it. In Gaza, 51 percent opposed the idea, while 48 percent favored it. Gazans were also the most likely to endorse the use of military force to achieve their aims.

(AP Photo)

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China reportedly captured and returned 12 North Korean troops who had defected after shooting their senior officer.

According to Korean media reports, there have been a series of defections among North Korean soldiers due to food shortages. North Korean border troops have been forced to cultivate their own corn and potatoes to survive and several groups have decided to roll the dice on escaping, only to be caught by Chinese border patrols.

It's not just North Korean soldiers who are having trouble escaping. In January, the New York Times reported that it was becoming "increasingly difficult" to smuggle refugees out of North Korea thanks to a crack down by China's border control.

Meanwhile, the United Nations has formally approved a probe into North Korea's human rights abuses.

(AP Photo)

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Described as a scene from Eyes Wide Shut, multiple high-level officials in Korea (including a vice minister and police administrators) have been identified in participating in "one of many" orgies hosted by a powerful Korean businessman.

There's evidently video to bolster the accusation (though it has not been publicly released).

If the allegations prove true, it would be one of Korea's biggest sex scandals, according to Kim Jae-won.

Koreans aren't the only Asian officials misbehaving. Last summer, photos and videos of Chinese Communist officials engaging in orgies went viral, before being squelched by China's rigorous censors.

You would think Rule #1 with these kinds of events would be "no cameras."

(The alleged house of ill repute | Yonhap)

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President Obama, speaking in Israel today:

“So as I begin this visit, let me say as clearly as I can –the United States of America stands with the State of Israel because it is in our fundamental national security interest to stand with Israel. It makes us both stronger. It makes us both more prosperous. And it makes the world a better place. That’s why the United States was the very first nation to recognize the State of Israel 65 years ago. That’s why the Star of David and the Stars and Stripes fly together today. And that is why I’m confident in declaring that our alliance is eternal, it is forever – lanetzach.”

While President Obama credits "strong national security interests" with the initial U.S. recognition of Israel, the reality was more complicated. In fact, President Truman's State Department and Defense Department, his key national security advisers, objected to the move. (Allis and Ronald Radosh have a nice background on Truman's recognition of Israel here.)

What's important about the president's remarks today, though, is less the strategic history than his assertion that the U.S. and Israel have an "eternal alliance."

I suspect we're going to see a lot of debate centered around that phrase in the coming days.

Andrew Sullivan, for instance, contrasts Obama's rhetoric with George Washington's famed warning to avoid entangling alliances:

The concept of an “eternal”, and “unbreakable” alliance with any other single country is a statement George Washington would have regarded as deeply corrosive of foreign policy and domestic governance. To declare it in the language of the foreign country has even deeper resonance. It is now the governing principle of both political parties – and the primary reason we may once again be headed to war with unforeseeable consequences in the Middle East.

Rick Moran, meanwhile, doubts Obama's sincerity:

If Iran gives him half a chance, he will sell out Netanyahu and the Jewish state.

Uri Friedman sees more subtle language at work:

See what he did there? Change "your" to "our" and a host of furious no-stronger-allies would be knocking on Washington's door. But, as Obama's speechwriters are well aware, it's probably fair to say that Israel received a visit from its closest partner today.

(AP Photo)

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Scotland is currently debating a marriage law which critics say would permit Jedi Knights to officiate at weddings.

At issue is language in the bill which would permit "groups promoting a belief" to perform marriages. That language was too vague for the Free Church of Scotland, whose spokesperson told the BBC:

"There are loads of people in a diverse society like this for whom belief can mean virtually anything - the Flat Earth Society and Jedi Knights Society - who knows?

"I am not saying that we don't give place to that kind of personal belief, but when you start making allowances for marriages to be performed within those categories then you are all over the place."

Before you think that fears of Jedi-led marriages are overblown, consider that the most recent UK census figures show that a surprisingly large number of Brits professed a sad devotion to that ancient religion. "Jedi" was the most popular "other Religion" option in the census and the seventh most popular faith overall.

(AP Photo)

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According to Japanese press reports, three political parties, comprising 76 percent of the seats in the lower house, have called for a change in Japan's Constitution. Specifically, they wish to revise "Article 9" which enshrines Japan's post-World War II pacifism.

The move to revise Article 9 is being led by the Liberal Democratic Party, whose leader, Shinzo Abe, is currently Japan's prime minister.

Most of the proposed revisions would assert Japan's right to "collective defense" and bestow official recognition on the country's Self-Defense Forces. The move is seen as a necessary first step for Japan to bolster its combat capabilities in light of its increasingly contentious standoff with China.

There is still some ways to go before Article 9 can be amended. A two-thirds majority in favor of the amendment must be achieved in both houses of congress. Elections for Japan's upper-house are due this summer.

That hasn't stopped Chinese media from firing a shot across the bow. Writing in the China Daily, Cai Hong claimed that the Abe government was ditching "Japan's commitment to world peace," which combined with his government's refusal to apologize for "Japan's aggression during World War II, the revision of Japan's constitution and easing of Japan's weapons exports is cause for concern for the rest of the world."

(AP Photo)

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Michael Hirsh says that there's a new monster stalking the nation's capital: neo-isolationism. Here's his evidence:

Perhaps nothing more vividly illustrates this dramatic transformation in U.S. foreign policy than the reversal of roles on the world stage of the United States and France. A decade ago, in the months before the Iraq invasion, the French played the role of chief challengers to the Bush administration and were derided as “cheese-eating surrender monkeys,” in the colorful tabloid phrase of the time. Today, it is France that is taking the lead in intervention, prodding the U.S. forward in Libya, Syria and Mali.

To a degree that the American public may not even be aware of, the U.S. military is now playing a supporting role to the French, with logistical aid and airlift in Mali, much as it did in Libya. In addition, Washington is only slowly coming around to the hawkish French view of Syria's stalemate: Autocrat Bashar al-Assad won’t be moved to negotiate unless the rebels can change the military balance with Western arms. A senior Western diplomat says America’s reluctance to intervene today, even in a humanitarian crisis as bloody as Syria’s, is not unlike where Washington was at the beginning of the Bosnia crisis of the early 1990s, when then-President Clinton was criticized for his hesitation (he eventually came around to supporting NATO strikes and empowered an aggressive U.S. diplomat, the late Richard Holbrooke, to take the lead from the Europeans in negotiations).

So ... the evidence that America has turned isolationist is that it has intervened in two countries (in the past several months) but on a more limited basis and not as fast as some people would like.

With all due respect to Hirsh, this is rather thin beer.

In fact, the "neo-isolationist" meme would be farcical and embarrassing if it wasn't so pernicious. As Daniel Larison notes, there are no isolationists in any meaningful sense of that term operating in American politics today. Even the more ardent non-interventionists still endorse trade and diplomacy. Many realists support the U.S. maintaining some international power projection capabilities as well.

So the term "isolationist" is really a short-hand for someone who opposes a particular war or intervention. It would be helpful if Hirsh and others chronicling Washington's foreign policy debate would be more specific here: There may indeed be a greater scrutiny with respect to the costs and benefits of putting U.S. boots on the ground in various parts of the world, but that's a far cry from "isolationism." Conflating it as such plays into the hands of demagogues.

(AP Photo)

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In a YouTube clip reportedly from a Syrian jihadi group called the "Mujahideen Brigade Front," a Chinese convert to Islam who claims to have fought in Libya and is now battling the Assad regime in Syria, apologizes to Syria on behalf of the Chinese for his government's support of the Assad regime.

He also threatens China with "economic sanctions" once the rebels prevail.

Foreign Policy has the translation.

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Everywhere you go, politicians are all the same. When times are good, they take the credit; when times are bad, they find a convenient boogeyman (often a straw man foreign threat) to distract the public for a while.

Populist Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner -- under whose auspices the nation has experienced a 26 percent inflation rate and riots in December -- is facing quite a bit of political trouble. Unsurprisingly, her approval rating has plummeted, from 69 percent over a year ago to 39 percent in January. True to form, she is taking a page from the global political playbook: She has decided to pick yet another fight with the UK over the Falkland Islands. And, this time, she has turned to a higher power: She called the Pope.

The Falkland Islands, a British territory referred to as Malvinas in Argentina, have been a sore spot for UK-Argentinian relations for several decades. Argentina claims the islands, and so the country invaded them in 1982, triggering a 74-day long war with the UK. In 1982, Margaret Thatcher was the UK's Prime Minister, so you can probably guess who won the war. (Nobody messes with the Iron Lady.)

But that was over 30 years ago, and Argentina is feeling scrappy again. Because of this, the Falkland Islands held a referendum on their status as a British territory last week. The result wasn't particularly close. Of the 1518 votes cast, 1513 (99.8 percent) voted to remain in the UK. What about those other 5 votes? One was invalid, one was lost and presumably three were cast in favor of Argentina. (When was the last time 99.8 percent of Americans agreed on anything?)

So now you can see why President Kirchner needs some divine intervention. Going up against the wishes of nearly all Falkland Islanders, not to mention the British government, is a monumental task.

Kirchner hopes that Pope Francis, an Argentinian himself, will support her. In the past, he has voiced support for Argentina's claims to the islands. However, he and Kirchner aren't exactly good friends. The two of them butted heads over social issues while he was still a cardinal, and Kirchner referred to his beliefs as "medieval." Further, the idea that a newly installed pope would immediately insert himself into a controversial geopolitical debate is a bit far-fetched.

Kirchner may need to boost her political support by attacking some other foreign boogeyman. Perhaps the U.S. would make a tempting target.

( AP photo)

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Giorgos Katidis got himself banned for life from the Greek football federation for making a Nazi salute after scoring a goal.

The 20-year-old pleaded ignorance, writing on Twitter that "I am not a fascist and would not have done it if I had known what it meant." He has also issued a public apology.

His coach (a German) also backed him, telling Reuters that Katidis "most likely saw such a salute on the internet or somewhere else and did it without knowing what it means."

The video of Katidis' infamous shot is below. Judge for yourself.

Whatever Katidis' motivations, Greece has seen the rise of fascist-style parties, like Golden Dawn, as its economic crisis grinds on.

(AP Photo)

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Official statistics from China's health ministry indicate that the country's doctors have performed 336 million abortions since 1971 in support of the government's "one-child" policy.

In addition to the hundreds of millions of abortions, China has also sterilized 196 million men and women since 1971.

China's leaders have credited the one-child policy, which is often brutally enforced, with preventing overpopulation and spurring economic growth. Yet it is also leading to a serious demographic crunch as China ages, a dynamic which could imperil China's future growth.

The incoming government has pledged to "reform" its family planning policies, although it does not plan to eliminate the one-child policy.

(AP Photo)

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The NewsHour conducted an interesting debate this between Kenneth Lieberthal of the Brookings Institution and Gordon Chang of Forbes about the Rise of Xi Jinping and the future of U.S.-China relations.

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This image, published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (via Fortune), shows a computer model of what "Supra-Polar" shipping routes will look like if global warming proceeds as expected. As you can see, a melting Arctic will open up a vast swath of ocean, including the Northwest Passage, which is expected to shave 30 percent of the distance to and from North America compared to the current Northern Sea Route, which hugs the Russian coastline.

By mid-century, the shortest route to travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific will be the North Pole.

The melting ice not only introduces unpredictable environmental variables, it also deals a blow to Russia's strategic position. As Jennifer Abbasi notes, Russia charges fees for vessels operating in its exclusive economic zone. As the ice opens up and more vessels can range beyond Russia's territorial waters, they'll lose out on their cut.

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The Falkland Islands held a referendum this week to decide whether they wished to remain a part of the United Kingdom (they did, overwhelmingly). Argentina has long claimed ownership of the islands (which are controlled by Britain) and the standoff between the two countries has grown tense of late.

That's due, in part, to the discovery of potentially significant amounts of oil in the waters around the islands. Indeed, the estimated 8.3 billion barrels of oil believed to be off-shore amounts to triple Britain's current reserve.

Argentina and Britain are both signatories to the UN's Convention on the Law of the Sea, which spells out various ownership and legal rights to territorial waters and the natural resource wealth therein. The folks at Political Geography have put together the useful map above which highlights the various claims.

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That's via the International Institute of Strategic Studies, which has released its comprehensive report on global military trends.

A teaser:

While the Middle East region is clearly in a state of flux, all around it the global redistribution of military power is continuing. Reflecting the subdued global economic climate, total defence spending actually fell in real terms in 2012 for a second year running. However, real increases were seen in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia and Eurasia, Latin America and in Asia, while real declines were seen in North America and Europe. As we predicted this time last year, 2012 saw nominal Asian defence spending overtake that of NATO European states for the first time.

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Well, North Korea's trolling video propagandists are back. Last time, it was a depiction of New York City burning to a karaoke rendition of "We Are The World." This time, well, just watch:

UPDATE:

We have been punked. Too good to be true...

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Apparently Ukraine had re-started a Soviet program to train dolphins to sniff out underwater mines and kill enemy divers. Who knew? Also, three of those trained attack dolphins are now on the loose:

Apparently they swam away from their trainers this morning ostensibly in search of a "mate" out in open waters. It might not be such a big deal except that these dolphins have been trained to "attack enemy combat swimmers using special knives or pistols fixed to their heads." So if you are planning a family holiday to the Black Sea this week, I think it's best you avoid any "friendly" dolphins that might approach - especially if they have KNIVES or PISTOLS strapped to their heads.

(AP Photo)

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More Iraqis feel safer now that U.S. troops have been removed from the country, according to a new survey from Gallup. While Iraqis feel more secure with American troops gone, Gallup did find that on other crucial metrics, such as political stability and jobs and unemployment, Iraqis are far less confident.

These findings aren't terribly surprising, given that the U.S. pumped billions of dollars into Iraq during the occupation, creating a bubble which has since burst with the draw-down of American troops.

The picture in Iraq also varies by sectarian affiliation with the formerly dominate Sunnis being more pessimistic about the country's trajectory than Shiites, particularly when it comes to issues like corruption and jobs. Gallup also found strong support among the Kurds for greater regional autonomy (87 percent favored it).

(AP Photo)

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Senator Leiberman is going to the American Enterprise Institute to do battle with the dark (and non-existent) forces of neo-isolationism. In making the announcement, AEI's President Arthur Brooks made the following observation:

"Senator Joseph Lieberman's knowledge, deep commitment and vision for American greatness is all too rare in Washington."[Emphasis mine.]

The idea of American greatness is "rare" in Washington? What Washington is Brooks referring to? The notion of American exceptionalism is one of the most rigid orthodoxies around. Kishore Mahbubani addressed this point at a recent Asia Society event with a telling anecdote: as he moderated a panel on American power with U.S. politicians and policy-makers, he discovered that "no senior American figure can have words coming out of his or her mouth" acknowledging even the possibility that America could be number two in the world.

Needless to say, the idea that America in general and Washington's political class in particular is suffering from an insufficient dose of self-flattery doesn't pass the laugh test.

(AP Photo)

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We're used to hearing about China's amazing 30 year run of blistering GDP growth. But there's another Asian country that has enjoyed 21 straight years of economic growth: Australia.

That's right, it's been 21 years since Australia has had a recession. That is the longest "for any nation at any time," according to Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics.

What's the secret? China.

Australia has profited immensely from China's rise. Its mining industry serves as a key source of raw materials to fuel China's manufacturing industries. Australia's growth has also earned it the distinction of being the fastest growing rich nation in the world, according to Deloitte.

Yet with exports surging, Australia, like China, is trying to "rebalance" its economy to boost domestic consumption, an effort that has yet to yield much success.

And while Australia's economy is closely linked to China, the relationship is still marked by unease. Just today, Australia's central bank reported that it was attacked by hackers possibly operating in China. Australia recently agreed to station U.S. Marines at a base in Darwin and the country's strategic community has been engaged in a passionate debate (encapsulated well by Hugh White's The China Choice and the invaluable blog The Interpreteter) about the role it should play between China and the U.S.

(AP Photo)

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According to a poll published by Der Standard, 42 percent of Austrians believe "not everything was bad under Hitler" vs. 57 percent who said there was "nothing positive" about the Hitler era.

Austrians also feel good about how their country has dealt with its Nazi past, according to the poll. Sixty one percent said they felt Austria handled it "adequately" vs. 39 percent who feel more should be done. Nevertheless, a full 54 percent of Austrians think neo-Nazi parties would do well in elections if they weren't currently banned by Austrian law.

(AP Photo)

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This week China announced it would up its defense tab by 10 percent. While this may have been music to ears of America's military-industrial complex, the reality is more complicated and considerably less menacing.

First, as a report in the China Quarterly notes, inflation has eaten away at the real-world impacts of China's big defense spending increases, making them much lower than current figures suggest. The military is also receiving a declining percentage of Chinese government spending -- "it does not come close to dominating national priorities," the study's authors write.

Indeed, as Lily Kuo observed, China is actually spending more money on domestic, internal security than it is on its external defense forces. The Communist Party has 1.3 billion people to keep an eye on -- a "near enemy" that's considerably more dangerous to their rule than America's Pacific fleet.

China also faces significant demographic and economic pressures over the longer-term which could put a crimp in their defense outlays.

(AP Photo)

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Yesterday we noted that the European Parliament was set to vote on a report that recommended banning pornography, writ large, across Europe.

This, naturally, ruffled some feathers and concerned Europeans began to email their "representatives" in Brussels. Except that these legislators weren't that interested in constituent feedback. Instead, they complained to the IT department of the European Parliament to block the incoming mail.

This set off Pirate Party MEP Christian Engstrom, who revealed the blocking on his site, calling it an "absolute disgrace."

"A parliament that views input from citizens on a current issue as spam, has very little democratic legitimacy in my opinion," Engstrom wrote.

(AP Photo)

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First Iceland, now Europe?

Next week the European Parliament is set to vote on a report titled Eliminating Gender Stereotypes in the EU. Sounds pretty noble, right? Well Rick Falkvinge read the fine print and declared the report a "horrendous attack on our fundamental freedoms of speech and expression."

Why? Because a provision in the report calls for "a ban on all forms of pornography in the media and on the advertising of sex tourism." It also calls for Internet service providers to police supposedly adult content across their networks in language vague enough to be construed as including flirty text messages and emails.

You would think, given Europe's current travails, that waging a war against porn would be a lower-order priority, but apparently not.

(AP Photo)

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Billions in aid, vows to attack Iran, covert cooperation against Iran's nuclear program -- none of these policies are evidently enough to convince Americans that President Obama is "supportive enough" of Israel, according to a poll for the Hill:

The proportion of voters who now say the president does not give strong enough backing to Israel is higher than it was in each of three similar surveys conducted for The Hill since May 2011.

Correspondingly, fewer voters now find the White House’s policy excessively supportive of Israel.

According to the latest Hill Poll, just 13 percent of respondents say the president’s policy toward Israel is too supportive. A full 39 percent said Obama is not supportive enough, the highest percentage The Hill Poll has seen.

Moreover, 30 percent think the president is anti-Israel while 28 percent think he is pro-Israel.

Also interesting to note that while Americans evidently want the administration to do more to support Israel, a majority of voters also insist that President Obama should be "very or somewhat" active in forging a peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians.

(AP Photo)

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With the UN reporting that nearly a million refugees have fled the fighting in Syria, the Economist ranks the Syrian war third among recent refugee crises. It still trails the first Iraq war and Rwanda in the terms of the numbers displaced during a given time period, but it may well catch up if the fighting continues and conditions inside the country continue to deteriorate.

The staggering refugee toll is putting a major strain on the countries surrounding Syria, particularly Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt. The BBC took a close look at how these refugees are living, and it isn't pretty.

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There's not a whole lot worth saying about the passing of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. As one journalist friend of mine put it, "he's simply a caudillo; the region has seen plenty before." I think that's about as accurate and succinct an obit as you're likely to read this week.

Others, however, have had much more to say about Mr. Chavez and his legacy, and some of it I find to be a bit strange. I don't mean Sean Penn and Oliver Stone strange, as that level of denial and naivety should go without saying. What I'm referring to is the reaction from El Comandante's more ardent detractors. Here's Jeffrey Goldberg:

Stephen Walt claims the U.S. exaggerated Chavez's faults: twitter.com/StephenWalt/st… Human Rights Watch diisagrees: hrw.org/news/2013/03/0…

— Jeffrey Goldberg (@JeffreyGoldberg) March 6, 2013

Goldberg is right to point out Chavez's human rights abuses, not to mention his history of repugnant anti-Semitic comments. But what exactly makes Chavez's record different from, for example, other serial human rights abusers that enjoy strategic, even warm, relations with the United States? After all, despite Chavez's bellicosity and anti-Americanism, the U.S.-Venezuela relationship remained a rather transactional one throughout much of Chavez's time in power.

No, Chavez's real problem was that he didn't have the good fortune of rising to power in a different hemisphere -- like somewhere in the Middle East, perhaps. When Chavez rigged elections he was called a dictator; when Jordan's King Abdullah II did it, he was called an innovator. When Chavez jailed dissidents, he earned scorn from Western media and policymakers. When the Kingdom of Bahrain did that, they got a weapons contract and a photo-op with the secretary of state. Same goes for those champions of tolerance and democracy in Saudi Arabia.

Hugo Chavez also failed to make himself of strategic value to the United States, and instead made it his business to thumb his nose at an American regional strategy still very much influenced by a Cold War frame of reference. He repeatedly touched -- nay, bear-hugged -- the third rail of U.S. Latin America policy, Cuba, and built a national identity around resisting so-called American imperialism. Though his boosters would have us believe that he was punished and isolated for "speaking truth to power" -- which, by the way, he most certainly did not -- his real crime was simply speaking in the first place. Had he stayed quiet and kept the oil spigot open, his economic mismanagement and undemocratic tendencies may have been overlooked by Washington.

Would-be demagogues and authoritarians, take note.

(AP Photo)

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It sounds almost Biblical in scope, but Israel is currently being swarmed by over a million locusts that have threatened crops throughout the country.

The timing is richly ironic, occurring just weeks before Passover. Locusts, for those who remember their Biblical history, were the eighth plague inflicted on Egypt when the pharaoh refused to release the Israelites from captivity.

Today, they're just a pest (although one that is also blanketing Egypt).

(AP Photo)

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Secretary of State John Kerry has a plan to stop Gulf state weapons from ending up in jihadist's hands in Syria:

Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that the Obama administration supported efforts by Middle Eastern nations to send arms to the opposition in Syria, and had had discussions with foreign officials to emphasize that those arms should go to moderate forces rather than to extremists.

“We had a discussion about the types of weapons that are being transferred and by whom,” Mr. Kerry said after a meeting with the prime minister of Qatar, which has been involved in arming the Syrian opposition. “We did discuss the question of the ability to try to guarantee that it’s going to the right people and to the moderate Syrian opposition coalition.”

Mr. Kerry’s comments were the most direct public affirmation to date that the Obama administration was supporting efforts to arm the Syrian resistance, provided that the arms are sent by other nations and that care is taken to direct them to factions the United States supports. [Emphasis mine.]

It's been discussed and emphasized. Is anyone else reassured by that?

(AP Photo)

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The proto-fascist political party Golden Dawn has emerged as an ominous political force in Greek politics, riding a wave of anger over punishing austerity measures. Student film-maker Konstantinos Georgousis produced a documentary on the group after having spent weeks filming them during the Greek election campaign (where the group won 18 seats). The film below shows Golden Dawn candidates openly promising to stuff immigrants "into the ovens" and make soap from their skin.

The snippet below gives you a taste of just what the group is all about.

(AP Photo)

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Via Brian Merchant who notes that, among other things, Chavez was the second most followed world leader on Twitter. President Obama is number one.

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On Monday we took note of a British Batman who appeared to have apprehended a wanted criminal and deposited him in a British jail before vanishing without a trace.

Well, wouldn't you know, it turns out this caped crusader's secret identity has been revealed and it's not all that inspiring: he's 39-year-old Stan Worby, a food delivery man.

Also, he didn't capture any criminal. He was, in fact, just accompanying the wanted man for "moral support" and wore the bat suit as a joke.

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America has not faced a military equal for decades now. The U.S. routinely outspends all of its potential rivals combined and while it doesn't boast the largest nuclear arsenal in the world in numeric terms, it's generally considered qualitatively superior to Russia's nuclear stockpile.

Yet a surprisingly large number of Americans don't seem to grasp their country's military superiority.

According to Gallup, fully 47 percent of Americans think that the U.S. is merely one of several leading military powers. The 50 percent who answered correctly that the U.S. is the leading military power represents an all-time low for the figure:

Daniel Larison takes a stab at explaining why so many people don't understand America's relative military standing:

When the U.S. fights major foreign wars, the well-publicized exercise of U.S. military power–no matter how unnecessary or self-defeating–drives the public perception that the “U.S. is number one” up and drives the other result down. When the U.S. concludes these wars or is perceived to be in the process of bringing them to a conclusion, we seem to see the reverse. A related explanation is that concluding wars, withdrawing forces from other countries, and considering the possibility of reduced military spending provoke hawkish warnings of American “decline.” That leads to a different sort of alarmism about the dangers to the world that could result from this so-called “decline.”

Robert Golan-Vilella adds more:

One reason is the habitual tendency of U.S. policy makers to exaggerate threats and dangers around the world, as Micah Zenko and Michael Cohen chronicled in their Foreign Affairs essay “Clear and Present Safety” last year. With leaders constantly stressing how dangerous and threatening the world is, it’s no wonder that the U.S. public believes a number of mistaken things about global affairs—and that many of them involve either overstating threats or understating Washington’s own power. For example, a 2010 CNN poll found that 71 percent of Americans believe that Iran currently has nuclear weapons. A separate CNN poll in 2012 indicated that Americans believe that the threat from Iran is on par with the danger presented by the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s. These latest results from Gallup appear to be part of the same story.

(AP Photo)

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This really happened:

At a General Assembly budget committee meeting on Monday, the United States ambassador for management and reform at the UN stood up to scold his colleagues for always showing up drunk to negotiations. "There has always been a good and responsible tradition of a bit of alcohol improving a negotiation, but we're not talking about a delegate having a nip at the bar," said Joseph "The Fun Police" Torsella. "We make the modest proposal that the negotiating rooms should in future be an inebriation-free zone."

If Torsella sounds like a buzz kill (or a Buzz Killington), he's evidently responding to a real problem. The AFP reports that some negotiators were showing up "falling down drunk" and too intoxicated to work at all.

(AP Photo; Ed Note: Not the UN, but close!)

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Vice President Joe Biden warned in no uncertain terms that the U.S. would start a war with Iran if a deal could not be reached over its nuclear program.

“Presidents of the United States cannot and do not bluff, and President Barack Obama is not bluffing,” Biden declared. Of course, that's not true. Presidents bluff all the time. Still, this warning is consistent with the administration's line on Iran, which is that a war is coming if a negotiated settlement can't be reached.

Jonathan Tobin liked what he heard:

While Biden’s typically long-winded and meandering speech contained some highly questionable statements, such as his defense of engagement with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government, his remarks also took the administration another step down the road to confrontation with Iran. Instead of merely alluding to the use of force by saying that all options were on the table, he made the case that the current futile diplomatic process with Tehran was defensible because it gave the administration the ability to tell the world that it had done everything possible to avoid conflict before resorting to force.

Aside from making the adolescent hysteria over Chuck Hagel look ridiculous, Biden's promises also underscore the fact that the administration that boasted that a "decade of war is now ending" is charging headlong (and needlessly) toward another.

(AP Photo)

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Forbes has put together this illuminating infographic showing you just how rich the uber-rich really are.

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A new realignment plan announced by the Defense Department will see the U.S. Army reduce the number of troops stationed in Europe by 10,000 soldiers in addition to removing two brigade combat teams and one corps headquarters.

America's still sizable European force will also move around a bit inside Europe, with several units currently station in Germany shifting to a refurbished base in Italy.

The U.S. has been steadily consolidating its military footprint in Europe, as a useful Military Times rundown makes clear. Some U.S. lawmakers had pushed to remove all permanent troops out of Europe on the logic that the U.S. couldn't afford it and that many European nations had been neglecting their own NATO-mandated spending minimums, but the effort was squashed by the Senate.

Still, the trend line is clear. During the Cold War the U.S. stationed almost 400,000 troops in Europe. By 2015, the Army will have roughly 30,000 troops there, according to Lance Bacon.

(AP Photo)

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Almost double the number of NATO troops were attacked by their Afghan "allies" in 2012 than in 2011, according to the Washington Times. There were 20 "insider" attacks in 2011 and 47 registered by NATO in 2012. The attacks killed 61 NATO soldiers (most of whom were Americans).

One unnamed Army officer quoted by the Times called these insider attacks the "most effective innovation in tactics employed by the Taliban over the course of the entire war."

One reason such attacks proved so effective was because NATO rapidly enlarged the size of the Afghan security force in the hopes of handing over security responsibilities to local troops after 2014. This mass recruitment resulted in less rigorous vetting, allowing Taliban agents to infiltrate the service or pay-off vulnerable recruits.

(AP Photo)

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A man dressed as Batman apparently captured a wanted criminal and dragged him into a police station in Bradford, UK. He disappeared thereafter without revealing his true identity.

From the looks of him, this British Batman doesn't appear to be following Bruce Wayne's exercise regimen.

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Watch Egypt's Economy in Dire Straits Two Years After Revolution on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Ahead of John Kerry's trip to Egypt, the NewsHour explores the chaotic aftermath of Egypt's revolution. Egypt may have thrown off a dictator, but it has yet to stabilize its cratering economy.

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With no formal Coast Guard but plenty of coastal waterways in dispute, China has been cultivating its State Oceanic Administration into a "stealth navy" to "challenge existing maritime demarcations," writes Miles Yu.

Yu writes that the Marine Surveillance division of the Oceanic Administration has blossomed into robust fleet consisting of 13 ships, including several 4,000 tonners, and plans to launch 36 more vessels in the coming year. This ostensibly civilian service has 400 vessels, 10 aircraft and a transport plane, Yu notes.

According to a U.S. Navy official quoted by Yu, this fleet's sole purpose is harass other states' boats as it seeks to stake its claim in contested waters. Just last week, Japan claimed three ships from the Marine Surveillance division entered its territorial waters.

(AP Photo)

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Where there's a will, there's a way. Mexican police have apparently captured a "weed cannon" that drug gangs used to fire 30 pound packets of marijuana across American border fences. The makeshift device was placed in the back of a flatbed truck and ferreted around.

It's not clear if there are more such cannons at large.

Mexico's drug cartels are no stranger to DIY engineering. The Zetas, for instance, used kidnapped telecom workers to build their very own communications network to evade the prying ears of Mexican officials.

(AP Photo)

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