South China Sea diplomacy and Teddy Roosevelt
James Clad and Robert Manning make the case for deft diplomacy in the South China Sea:
Of course, we can keep relying on America's countervailing actions, knowing that China doesnâ??t play well in a multilateral space. But this game is prone to miscalculations by all sides. Nor does there seem much to gain from spending more time on â??confidence building measuresâ? or on a â??multilateral security architectureâ? of regional groupings heavy on acronyms and light on results.To find something new, we might try looking backwards â?? to a type of split-the-difference US diplomacy last deployed after Russia and Japan had fought a war in 1905. The next year, Theodore Roosevelt brokered a peace that lasted three decades, allowing China, Europe and the US to adjust to Japanâ??s rise as a major power.
To achieve something similar today would mean finding ways to facilitate commercial exploitation of the South China Sea. Privately, some chief executives of Chinese energy companies have spoken recently of their desire to form offshore joint ventures with western companies. Such joint exploitation could proceed by means of agreements resting expressly on a â??without prejudiceâ? basis â?? where companies, and the states in which they are domiciled, would make clear that mutual oil and gas exploration and production would occur â??without prejudiceâ? to their parent countryâ??s sovereign claims. The competing claimant countries could agree among themselves as to which companies might participate in extraction in the areas in dispute.
Who knows if this would work, but it sounds like an idea worth pursuing.
