Libya is likely to face an insurgency after Gaddafi falls.
Max Boot warns against the danger of "simply toppling" Gaddafi:
But - and this is a message that no one in Washington wants to hear - we must not limit our war aims to simply toppling Gadhafi. We made that mistake in Iraq and Afghanistan. By not paying attention to what comes after the deposal of a dictator, we inadvertently created conditions for a long-term insurgency. In Libya it is imperative that the U.S. and our allies make plans now to insert a stabilization force after Gadhafi's downfall to help the National Transitional Council gain control of the country.
I think Boot is absolutely right to warn about the dangers of a destabilized, post-Gaddafi Libya, but I think he gets things somewhat upside down when it comes to the precedent here. The U.S. "created the conditions for a long-term insurgency" in Iraq and Afghanistan by invading and occupying those countries. The lack of security certainly makes it easier for an insurgency to rage, but the motivations for such a fight have more to do with the presence of foreign military forces in a country, access to weapons and a desire on the part of insurgents to take power by force.
I do think Libya is (on paper, at least) a somewhat more hospitable environment for the kind of stabilization force Boot advocates than either Iraq or Afghanistan: there is some form of government-in-waiting that is drawn from inside the country (not air-dropped at the behest of Washington bureaucrats) and the country is not bordered by a government that has an interest in sustaining an anti-American insurgency.
But again, it's worth noting that Libyans were well represented among the "foreign fighters" inside Iraq. If they were willing to travel into another country to kill Americans and Western soldiers, it stands to reason they would be only too willing to battle American and Western troops in their own country, no matter how large the stabilization force. And, as Larison points out: "Even now, there are still almost 6,000 soldiers from NATO and other nations in Kosovo. Given the size of Libya and its political history, we would have to expect that a stabilization force would have to be much larger and would have to remain there much longer."
Needless to say, both Europe and the United States are currently having some financial issues at the moment and ponying up billions to police Libya just isn't going to happen.
(AP Photo)
