Who should America support in Egypt?
Watching events unfold in Egypt, it seems the Obama administration is in much the same pickle that has bedeviled America's Middle East and counterterrorism policy since 9/11 - moves to improve American security in the short-run can potentially harm the U.S. position over the longer run.
In the long run, almost everyone agrees that America would be better served dealing with a government in Egypt with real democratic legitimacy. But to get there, the U.S. may well have to deal with an Egypt that turns against U.S. priorities and interests (and that's assuming the country can more or less peacefully transition to another government and not collapse into chaos). See Leslie Gelb's warning on the issue:
The other "devil," now being proclaimed as misunderstood Islamic democrats, is the Muslim Brotherhood, and they should give us great pause. Baloney and wishful thinking aside, the MB would be calamitous for U.S. security. What's more, their current defenders don't really argue that point, as much as they seem to dismiss it as not important or something we can live with. The MB supports Hamas and other terrorist groups, makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers, would be uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal, and opposes the Egyptian-Israeli agreement of 1979, widely regarded as the foundation of peace in the Mideast. Above all, the MB would endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide. That is a very big deal.
The counter-argument is that standing behind Mubarak if he uses violence to crush the protesters isn't going to help America either, because it will create even more disaffection with the U.S. in the Mideast and ensure that when Mubarak does fall (or die), the leaders that take over will have even greater animosity toward the U.S. than they do now.
(AP Photo)
