Max Boot wrestles with the Pakistan challenge:
The Obama administration has gotten slightly more muscular in its approach by stepping up drone strikes â?? a good idea. But at the same time, the president has made it harder to woo Pakistan because he has given credence to the notion that we are on our way out of Afghanistan. If thatâ??s in fact the case â?? and I donâ??t believe it is â?? then Pakistan has no choice but to look after its own interests, and in the view of the Pakistani military, that means supporting jihadist proxy forces such as the Taliban. There is probably no way to wean the Pakistanis entirely off this strategy in the foreseeable future, but at least if Obama were to clarify his muddled rhetoric regarding a deadline for withdrawal and make it clear that the U.S. is in the region for the long term, he may change the incentive structure for the Pakistani officer corps and make it more palatable for them to take tougher action against terrorist groups, secure in the knowledge that we will not leave them in the lurch.
I think this overlooks a critical issue. It's not just America's wavering long-term commitment to Afghanistan that's making Pakistan hedge its bets with the Taliban - it's India's investment inside Afghanistan ($1.2 billion and counting). In fact, the more the U.S. stays and (in theory) stabilizes the country, the more hospitable Afghanistan will become to increased Indian investment and influence. And if past is prologue, Pakistan is not going look kindly on that development as it will be perceived as encirclement.
The length of time the U.S. stays, or says it will stay, inside Afghanistan isn't really going to matter much. The only way you can change Pakistan's calculus with respect to Afghanistan is to change their calculus with respect to India. And good luck with that.
(AP Photo)
