Should we worry about peak oil?
Vaclav Smith says we shouldn't worry about oil supplies running out:
Appraisals of the oil future tend to focus on dwindling supply and assume that demand will inexorably grow. But this is not the case. Rising oil prices and economic downturns exert clear downward pressure on demand, and we can reinforce this pressure through more efficient fuel conversions, by promoting sensible alternatives, and, above all, by turning to natural gas. This abundant fuel can do everything oil can, and is already the most important fuel for heating houses and the second most important fuel for generating electricity. The United States already has natural gas reserves sufficient for nearly a century at the current rate of consumption.Extraction of any mineral resource must decline and eventually cease, but oil will continue to be a major contributor to the world energy supply in the coming decades. Whenever it comes, news of a peak in global oil production should be greeted with calm. Energy transitions throughout historyâ??from biomass to coal, from coal to oil and gas, and from direct use of fuels to electricityâ??have always resulted in more productive and richer economies. Modern society will not collapse simply because we face yet another of these grand transformations.
The Council on Foreign Relations' Geo-Graphics blog isn't so upbeat:
South Korea, which consumes 3% of world oil output, is too small to disrupt oil markets. China is too big not to disrupt them. Were Chinaâ??s per capita oil consumption to be brought up to South Koreaâ??s, its share of global consumption would increase from todayâ??s 10% to over 70%. In order to cap Chinaâ??s share at 22%, which is the U.S. share today, global oil output would have to increase by a massive 13% per annum over ten years â?? well beyond the 1% growth averaged since 1975. This rate of growth is inconceivable, even if vastly more expensive sources of supply, such as the Canadian oil sands, were developed at breakneck speed.
(AP Photo)
