Americans support South Korea.
Via Rasmussen:
As the saber-rattling increases on the Korean Peninsula, 47% of U.S. voters think the United States should provide military assistance to South Korea if it is attacked by its Communist neighbor to the north.A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 25% oppose U.S. military assistance to South Korea if it is attacked by North Korea, but another 28% are undecided.
Fifty-six percent (56%) say it is at least somewhat likely there will be a war between the two Koreas in the near future, but only 14% say itâ??s Very Likely. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say war between North Korea and South Korea is not very or not at all likely any time soon.
I doubt that the current standoff will escalate into an outright shooting war, but with some kind of leadership transition in North Korea, there's certainly ample room for miscalculation. Still, as this FT analysis makes pretty clear, a war is clearly not in North Korea's interest:
For North Korea, the fundamental risk of any conflict is that it would almost certainly lose, given its conventional military weakness. For South Korea, the risk is that while it might ultimately win, it would suffer immense casualties.â??Back in 1993, when the Clinton administration was contemplating surgical military strikes against North Korea over Pyongyangâ??s nuclear programme, most experts estimated that a conflict between North and South would see at least 500,000 fatalities,â? says John Swenson-Wright, a fellow of Chatham House, a London-based think-tank. â??War is a course of action that neither side can rationally contemplate.â?
North Korea has about 1m armed men, but the technical capability of its military has long been open to question. Experts doubt North Korea has the fuel needed to mount an extensive military incursion into the South. Many believe the Northâ??s army may well be unwilling to fight.
â??Anybody looking at the balance of forces in the peninsula would see this as unwinnable from Pyongyangâ??s perspective,â? says Mr Swenson-Wright. â??South Korea has a significant standing army based on national conscription. There are also around 30,000 US troops in the country with clear capability to reach into the North.â?
Of course, people can do stupid things.
(AP Photo)
