Would saudi arabia join Iran's orbit?
One of the very legitimate concerns about Iran acquiring nuclear capability is that it would spur other states in the region to acquire their own nuclear weapons as a deterrent. There's some reason to doubt this would happen - Israel fought actual wars with many Arab states and acquired a nuclear arsenal decades ago without causing a cascade of proliferation. But nevertheless non-proliferation experts think it's a very real possibility (and indeed some believe an arms race has more or less already begun).
But now Evelyn Gordon raises the opposite worry: that Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, will jump into Iran's orbit:
The prospect of a shift in Saudi Arabiaâ??s allegiance ought to alarm even the Obama administration. Saudi Arabia is not only one of Americaâ??s main oil suppliers; itâ??s also the country Washington relies on to keep world oil markets stable â?? both by restraining fellow OPEC members from radical production cuts and by upping its own production to compensate for temporary shortfalls elsewhere.Granted, Riyadh is motivated partly by self-interest: unlike some of its OPEC colleagues, it understands that keeping oil prices too high for too long would do more to spur alternative-energy development than any amount of global-warming hysteria. And since its economy depends on oil exports, encouraging alternative energy is the last thing it wants to do.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia has been generally effective as stabilizer-in-chief of world oil markets and has no plausible replacement in this role. And since the U.S. economy remains highly oil-dependent, a Saudi shift into Iranâ??s camp would effectively put Americaâ??s economy at the mercy of the mullahs in Tehran.
So Iran would replace America's role as Saudi Arabia's close ally and use that position to... do what exactly, convince OPEC to raise the price of oil to $200 or $300 a barrel? It's possible that the Saudis could be that monumentally stupid as to put their entire economy (and monarchy) on a path to extinction, but even Gordon seems to doubt it.
Still, one could imagine a possible upside here. If Iran took the Saudi royal family under its wing, than perhaps bin Laden & co. would direct their fire at Tehran.
(AP Photo)
