The coming Cold War with China
Dan Blumethal has a thorough post examining the implications of China's growing naval strength and what America's response should be:
Taiwan's importance is the same as the importance of our Japanese, South Korean, and Philippine allies -- more geopolitical than geostrategic. These countries have embraced the international system that the United States created and defended after World War II. They are democratic states with free market economies that all want to be part of what used to be called the "West," the worldwide club of modern, advanced industrial democracies. Washington's interests are better served when economically vibrant democracies are free from the control of other great powers - this better ensures that the international system remains hospitable to us.In my opinion, for geopolitical as well as geostrategic reasons, the United States military should maintain a (more defendable) presence on the territory of as many U.S. Asian allies as welcome it, at least until all can be assured that China will be a responsible and democratic great power, uninterested in creating its own exclusive economic or military spheres. That means we need to work harder to help our allies build capabilities that help frustrate China's military plans rather than pulling back and relying mostly on offshore bases.
To rephrase this, Blumenthal thinks we should engage in a massive Asian arms race until:
*China is "responsible"
*China is "democratic"
*China does not want "exclusive economic or military spheres"
Of all these conditions only one - a closed economic sphere - strikes me as something worth attempting to stop. I have no idea what being "responsible" means in this context but if it's a proxy for "doing what Washington says to do" then good luck with that. As for democratic, that's irrelevant. If China doesn't want to wage war on her neighbors or carve out exclusive economic zones in which we can't participate it, that should be enough for American policy.
As for a "military sphere" this is another way of saying that America must be the strongest military power in Asia (i.e. that it remains an "American sphere"). Such a strategy is plausible if we're counting the aggregate power of our allies and, crucially, we're not trying to sustain a similar posture everywhere else. Otherwise we're just going to accelerate our own bankruptcy and decline.
Finally, there is the idea that China will want to create a "closed" economic zone - precisely where and how this would occur and what material impact it would have on the U.S. isn't really specified, but isn't this rather important to spell out? It's been noted before but China is only growing powerful because it is participating in the open international economy (including trade with the U.S.).
Still, I think it's only proper to look 20 years down the road and hedge against the possibility that China, having grown strong off the system, would seek to fundamentally upend it. But it would be nice if advocates of a "preemptive containment" of China could state the case a bit more concretely.
(AP Photo)
