Would Iran start a war with NATO?
Writing in National Review, Jamie Fly suggests that Iran is suicidal:
Another prominent missile-defense skeptic is Philip E. Coyle, III, a former Pentagon official who has criticized just about every aspect of U.S. missile-defense policy over the last decade. Mr. Coyle has been nominated by President Obama to serve as associate director for National Security and International Affairs in the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House.Coyle made a name for himself by questioning whether missile defense is technically possible, contradicting a proven track record of repeated successes by the Pentagonâ??s Missile Defense Agency. In a 2009 Arms Control Association presentation, he described the agencyâ??s tests as being â??scripted for success.â? He has also questioned whether rogue regimes are even interested, let alone capable, of attacking the United States and its allies. In testimony last year in front of the House Armed Services Committee, he stated, â??In my view, Iran is not so suicidal as to attack Europe or the United States with missiles.â? Given Iranâ??s recent tests of missiles with increasing ranges and its successful launch of a satellite into orbit, Mr. Coyleâ??s questioning of the intentions of rogues such as Iran is incredibly naïve.
I'm not so sure. Is there really any evidence to the contrary? I mean, we know that Iran will use terrorist proxies to strike out at opponents - including those in Europe. But that's a far, far cry from starting a conventional shooting war with NATO - which is the implication of an unprovoked missile attack against the United States and Europe. The Soviet Union, with over ten thousand nuclear weapons and multiple platforms to deliver them against the continental United States, didn't risk it. Why would Iran, a fourth rate power? Again, we have thirty years of history with the Islamic Republic, including ten years (or so) when they have possessed WMD and they have not started a conventional war with any state - let alone a grouping of the strongest states in the world.
Now, clearly Iran is developing the capability to launch such an attack. But capability is not the same as intent. Modest investments in missile defenses strikes me as a reasonable hedge against the possibility that deterrence could fail (certainly, in my view, better to invest some money there than in building up a massive constabulary force to wage counter-insurgencies across the world). But that's a far cry from believing in an imminent Iranian missile barrage.
(AP Photo)
