Evan Feigenbaum points to the signs:
First, thereâ??s Chinaâ??s sheer weight in the world, which has now grown to the point that Beijing has acquired the capacity to push back at American policies as never before. China has said â??noâ? plenty of times in the past. But whatâ??s new is the combination of interdependence and a more weighty China. So while the administration has met some of this pushback with American counterpressure, Chinaâ??s government seems lately to be probing and testing, exploring the possibilities and limits of Beijingâ??s strengthened capacity to say â??noâ? to the United States.Second, thereâ??s the ongoing debate in China spawned by the recent financial crisis. This has been a theme at meetings Iâ??ve held in recent months with Chinese colleagues. Some have reached sweeping (but, I think, badly exaggerated) conclusions about shifts in the balance of power, Chinaâ??s â??rise,â? and Americaâ??s â??decline.â? But at minimum, this sort of sentiment will feed domestic pressures in China. Many, both in and out of Chinaâ??s government, want to test what Beijingâ??s growing weight might yield. They are confident of Chinaâ??s growing strength. They relish the opportunity to, at minimum, make Washington work harder for Chinese support of ostensibly shared objectives. In some cases, they want to see if Washington will accommodate a wider array of Chinese interests.
Third, the domestic politics of U.S.-China relations seem to be changing. This is true on the Chinese side: Chinese exporters, for instance, are resisting calls for exchange rate revaluation, arguing that many companies will go under and China will suffer massive job losses. But it is especially true on the American side, where the old political and business coalition may be fracturing. Some of my old colleagues, I fear, may not appreciate the degree to which the politics of China policy might get away from this president and his administration.
I do think this last point is something worth watching. A number of polls show serious American concern with China (see here and here for instance). What's more, a recent Pew Research poll of elite vs. public attitudes shows a divergence of opinion, with elites less worried about the rise of China than the public at large. There's considerable room, I think, for demagogic politicians to make hay at China's expense.
