Ervand Abrahamian explains why the unrest in Iran falls short of a full revolution:
"The shah had very little legitimacy -- he was brought to power by a foreign-inspired coup," he added, noting that Pahlavi was restored to power after a coup led by Britain and the United States ousted nationalistic Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. The shah had previously fled Iran after Mossadegh and his supporters challenged Pahlavi's control.
"The present regime, even though it lost a lot of legitimacy with the irregularities of the election and the refusal of allowing the public to express itself -- that aura of legitimacy is still there."
Abbas Milani makes a more macabre observation:
Today's opposition leaders are "nominal leaders, put there by the people -- but none of them are willing to risk people's lives," said Milani. "If Moussavi was as reckless with people's lives as Khomeini, he could have challenged this regime much more."
I honestly don't know what tomorrow's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution is going to look like. My fear isn't so much that the Green Movement won't show; I trust that they will. But the combination of large crowds of anti-government protesters and pro-government loyalists, Basijis and thugs is a recipe for something far worse. Reza Aslan explains:
the regime has promised to organize its own â??counterdemonstrations,â? busing in supporters from distant rural villages to take on the protesters. It will be the first time that pro- and anti-government demonstrations will be going head-to-head since last summer. With neither side backing down, there is every reason to expect a violent clash. Whether that could augur a civil war in the country remains to be seen.
Thus the difference between revolution and reform movement may simply come down to the numbers. Many are quick to forget that the 1979 revolution - along with demonstrations numbering in the millions - was accompanied by general strikes across the country, including the crucial oil industry. The revolutionaries declared economic warfare on Pahlavi, and they had the numbers and the will to back it up.
The Greens may yet, or they may just be an incremental reform movement - both are praise worthy, however each holds different policy implications for Washington.
(AP Photo)
