Josh Rogin reports:
The new NIE has been expected for a while, but now seems to be close to release, perhaps within two weeks or so, according to the pervasive chatter in national-security circles this week. In addition to the expectation that the new estimate will declare that Iran is on a path toward weaponization of nuclear material, multiple sources said they are being told there will be no declassified version and only those cleared to read the full 2007 NIE (pdf) will be able to see the new version.The Obama administration finds itself in tough situation as it pursues new sanctions against Iran both at the United Nations and using domestic levers. Many feel the administration needs to correct the record by somehow disavowing the intelligence community's controversial 2007 conclusion: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."
Multiple Hill aides said they expect only a classified version with no public document; the 2007 estimate included an unclassified version. They see that move as an effort by the Obama administration not to have the new estimate unnecessarily complicate the ongoing negotiations to seek new sanctions against Iran at the U.N.
While the curious Iran-ophile in me would love to read the document in full, I can see why the administration would seek to avoid the 2007 hubbub. The intent and purpose of that report was often contorted through the eye of the beholder, confusing what is really nothing more or less than a summary of opinions from across several intelligence agencies. Using it to slam dunk or deny that Iran has done or continues to do anything definitively is of little value to anyone.
(AP Photo)
