Shortly after Secretary Clinton appeared on CNN hailing the virtues of smart power, Iran announced it was going to enrich more Uranium. Said Clinton:
But the fact is, because we engaged, the rest of the world has really begun to see Iran the way we see it. When we started last year talking about the threats that Iranâ??s nuclear program posed, Russia and other countries said, well, we donâ??t see it that way. But through very slow and steady diplomacy, plus the fact that we had a two-track process â?? yes, we reached out on engagement to Iran, but we always had the second track, which is that we would have to try to get the world community to take stronger measures if they didnâ??t respond on the engagement front.
The basic trouble for the Obama administration with respect to Iran and engagement is that the time tables aren't synced. If engagement is expected to change Iranian behavior, it must do so over the long term. Depending on which estimate you believe, Iran may achieve its nuclear goals in the short-to-medium term.
If we assume that Iran is essentially hell bent on some nuclear weapons capability (a functional weapon or the ability to quickly assemble one) than engagement is probably not going to stop them. Sanctions may not either, because again, Iran may be close enough to its nuclear goals that it can outlast the pinch of sanctions (but Iran may also be much further away than we assume). Nor is it at all clear, despite what Secretary Clinton asserted, that the U.S. has convinced other countries to view Iran the way do. China has just openly rebuffed (again) American calls for sanctions and it remains to be seen whether Russia will ultimately opt for them (especially since China gives them cover).
But the real trouble for the Obama administration is that it has set its goal as an Iran without nuclear weapons. Affirming this goal is obviously essential for diplomacy or sanctions to have any chance of working, but you can see how it boxes the administration into a corner. If their preferred tactics fail, they will either be left with a humiliating climb-down as Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, or be forced to take military action, with all of its attendant consequences.
(AP Photo)
