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Laura Rozen with some sound advice for those predicting the rapid demise of the Iranian regime:

A dose of skepticism may be in order. It's worth remembering that Iraqi exile Ahmad Chalabi conned an awful lot of the Western press and public to believe some phony Iraqi National Congress "defector" Adnan Ihsan al-Haideri, whom he made available "exclusively" to gullible journalists in Bangkok before the Iraq invasion, with bogus tales designed to appeal to the Western policy narrative. And it's worth remembering such moments are fraught with the risk of exploitation by opportunists of various stripes who have an agenda they would seek to impose, including on those inside of Iran actually risking their lives, without outside support, interference or taint.

Add Rozen to the list of shoulder shruggers, I guess.