I believe skepticism directed toward Rafsanjani and his ilk shows a kind of sophistication on the part of Iranians. They know that, for the most part, the kabuki show of 'pragmatists' vs. 'principlists' has really been a meaningless one for them.
Reihan Salam writes:
Even if the Iranian unrest promises some broader shift, Iran's deeper problem is a paranoid political culture that emphasizes conspiracies over structural problems. Given that Iran is ruled by a series of overlapping conspiracies, this paranoia is excusable. Yet obsession with the corruption of an individual like Rafsanjani is a distraction from the deeper corruption of a highly illiberal, statist regime that systematically favors clerical favorites and the military over Iran's impoverished majority.
Well, first off, just a cursory glance at Persian history throughout the 20th Century would validate much of that paranoia.
Secondly, I believe skepticism directed toward Rafsanjani and his ilk shows a kind of sophistication on the part of Iranians. They know that, for the most part, the kabuki show of 'pragmatists' vs. 'principlists' has really been a meaningless one for them.
And it raises some good questions: where is the Green Movement going? If it were to supplant Khamenei's police state, what would replace him? Can it rely on old hardliners like Mousavi and Rafsanjani to free and reform the country?
Keep in mind that Khomeini's revolution involved a variety of liberals, academics and democrats, but in the end, they were mostly purged from the leadership. If the Green 'revolution' is no more than a game of musical chairs involving the same corrupt actors, what good would that do?
As Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett point out, it remains unclear as to what the actual end-game is here. The Green Movement lacks a clear guiding philosophy, and for now, I think that's perfectly alright. It's my sense that what we're seeing are the foothills of a revolutionary movement rather than its mountainous peaks. But only when the movement sheds the skin of the previous regime entirely will something akin to revolution, in my mind, begin to ferment.
