Betting on COIN

Thinking a bit further about the strategy the president laid out in his speech last night, it seems to place a mighty heavy bet that the U.S. military can duplicate in Afghanistan the success it enjoyed in Iraq. The strategy strikes me as modest: calm things down so we can leave with the patina of victory. If the longer term trends in Afghanistan turn south, the fault will lay with the Afghans, who failed to take advantage of the opportunity afforded them by allied military forces.

This worked fairly well in Iraq. The politics inside Iraq are still a mess, and an appallingly high number of Iraqis are still being slaughtered, but we can plausibly and rightfully say that if Iraq can't get its act together now, no amount of American military power inside the country could right the ship.

Obama is gambling that a similar dynamic will take hold in Afghanistan. We'll do our best, and then it's up to them. This doesn't exactly jibe with the contention that Afghanistan is a "vital national interest" but given the circumstances, perhaps this was the only bet available. I sure hope it works.

(AP Photos)