Peak Oil Back on the Radar

The International Energy Agency is out with its new global forecast on oil and energy reserves (a short highlight is available here - pdf). Meanwhile, a whistle-blower at the IEA has gone to the Guardian to say the organization's estimates for global output are far too optimistic:

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

Kevin Drum isn't so sure this anonymous source is really onto something significant.

(AP Photos)