The Folly of Drawing a Conclusion from Iraq

In the Wall Street Journal, Senators Linsey Graham, Joseph Lieberman and John McCain argue for a troop surge in Afghanistan:

Yet an increasing number of commentators, including some of the very same individuals who opposed the surge in Iraq and called for withdrawal there, now declare Afghanistan essentially unwinnable. Had their view prevailed with respect to Iraq in 2006 and 2007, the consequences of our failure there would have been catastrophic.

Similarly, the ramifications of an American defeat in Afghanistan would not only be a devastating setback for our nation in what is now the central front in the global war on terror, but would inevitably further destabilize neighboring, nuclear Pakistan. Those who advocate such a course were wrong about Iraq, and they are wrong about Afghanistan.

I don't understand how the Senators can draw any conclusions from Iraq. Consider this from General David Petraeus:

"In fact, typically, I think historically, counter-insurgency operations have gone at least nine or 10 years."

If you date the beginning of American counter-insurgency in Iraq in 2006, you'll see we're not even at the halfway point. Looking at the news emerging from Iraq of late, is it so difficult to imagine scenarios which lead to a sharp uptick in violence? The "lessons" we learn from Iraq in 2012 or 2016 may be quite different from the ones we think we know in 2009.

(AP Photos)