Obama to Brazil: Bring on the Tires
As I've noted repeatedly, the Obama Administration's defense of the President's decision to restrict Chinese tire imports under Section 421 of US Trade Law has thus far rested on the flimsy assertion that the protection was absolutely necessary to ensure proper enforcement US law or global trade rules. Well, perhaps realizing just how misleading that argument is, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Ron Kirk opened up a new, and bizarrely honest, line of rationalization. Here's the AFP with the news (emphasis mine):
A spat over US tariffs on Chinese tires need not trigger a trade war between Washington and Beijing, US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said Wednesday."I don't believe it should or need spark any trade war," Kirk said during a visit to Brazil.
"In the short-term it could mean that we buy a lot more tires from Brazil," he added to a conference of Brazilian businesspeople.
In other words, the United States Trade Representative is telling America's trading partners that their concerns re: Section 421, a US-China trade war and an increase in global protectionism are totally misplaced. Indeed, instead of being upset, they should actually be thrilled about the 421 decision because banning Chinese tire imports from the US market could lead to a big increase in their own tire exports to America. Huzzah!
Actually, Kirk is totally right about the inevitable "trade diversion" resulting from the tire tariffs. I'm just baffled that he has the audacity to acknowledge it, and I wonder whether Kirk's rare moment of unscripted candor is a real gaffe.
As I noted over the weekend, there is ample historical and empirical evidence that restricting imports of a product from one country typically leads to surges in other countries' imports of like products, rather than increases in domestic production. Indeed, this was the very argument offered up by economists, free traders, US tire dealers, and the Chinese and American tire producers as to why Section 421 protection was (and remains) a bad idea. Of course, President Obama ultimately disagreed with this argument and imposed 35% tariffs on Chinese tires, effectively purging them from the US market.
But here's where Kirk's statements in Brazil make things interesting.
As I've already noted several times, under Section 421 the President will impose trade protection unless he determines that "such relief is not in the national economic interest of the United States or... would cause serious harm to the national security of the United States." See 19 U.S.C. 2457(k). "Not in the national economic interest" is then defined as where "taking of such action would have an adverse impact on the United States economy clearly greater than the benefits of such action." Id. In other words, in making his decision President Obama was required by law to restrict Chinese tire imports unless he found that the costs of such protectionism would be "clearly greater" than the benefits.
In this case, the "costs" to the US economy are those broadly borne by US tire consumers, as well as downstream companies (tire importers, tire retailers, auto manufacturers, etc.) and their employees. Rutgers economist Thomas Prusa estimates that the costs of 421 protection to consumers alone would be $600-700 million per year, and could also threaten the jobs of the approximately 200,000 Americans who work in the downstream US tire industry. So the potential costs are obviously pretty high. The potential "benefits" of tire protection, on the other hand, would be narrowly focused on US tire manufacturers and their employees (represented by the United Steelworkers Union). The USTR news release announcing the 421 decision highlights these alleged benefits in its opening paragraph: "Following what the ITC determined was a surge, production of similar products in the U.S. dropped, domestic tire plants closed, and Americans lost their jobs. Today's steps are designed to level the playing field for American workers in the tire market." So the intended benefits of keeping Chinese tires out of the US market are increased (or at least stabilized) US tire production and employment. (Lots of other public support for 421 also cites these "benefits.")
