Canada's Tories Go “All-in”
The odds of an early election in Canada have increased sharply over the last few weeks. Now, it seems that the minority Conservative government lead by PM Stephen Harper could be defeated on a vote of confidence as soon as Friday, thus plunging Canada into election turmoil.
The Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, announced weeks ago that he would no longer support the government in the House of Commons. The other opposition parties, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats (NDP), are unlikely to support or assist the Tories in any way. In fact, a so-called secret recording of one of Mr. Harper’s speeches (no media were allowed in the room) has just been released. Harper's adjusted message is rather clear: the fire breathing reformist is back in business. In a particularly intense show of passion, Stephen Harper urges his supporters to help him win a majority, or else Canada would be left at the hands of a Liberal government supported by separatists (Bloc) and socialists (NDP) that would nominate left-wing ideologues to critical federal institutions. The tone has been set.
Clearly, Mr. Harper - who has been serving as Prime Minister ever since the beginning of 2006, but has never been able to secure a majority in the House - has decided to use every last tool in the box. If he were playing poker, he would be going “all-in”.
At the beginning of the last campaign, the Tories were riding high against a weak Liberal leader, Stéphane Dion, and a Bloc Québécois that appeared on the defensive. In the end, they did clobber the Grits, but their approval ratings sank dramatically in Quebec after some separatist-bashing comments were made, thus paving the way for (yet another) Bloc landslide which effectively prevented them from obtaining a majority. But this time around, Mr. Harper has decided to focus his energy where he can actually win seats: Ontario (108 seats), as opposed to Quebec where 45 to 50 of the 75 ridings remain solid Bloc territory. Not much room to grow for the Tories there; Le Devoir reported last week that an internal report from the Conservative party analyzed that at least 6 of its 10 Quebec MP’s were in danger. Not because of a surge in Bloc support, mind you, but because of a stronger showing of the Grits in the province -- which might split the federalist vote, thus allowing the Bloc to consolidate its nationalist base and win key battleground constituencies.
Right now, democraticSPACE’s poll of polls gives us this picture of the relative strength of parties in Canada (155 seats required for a majority):
Tories: 35.2% (136 seats)
Grits: 30.7% (94 seats)
Bloc: 9.4% (38.4% in Quebec, 45 seats)
NDP: 15.2% (33 seats)
If voters were called to the polls today, the Canadian House of Commons would look much as it is today. With the Bloc’s solid grip on most of Quebec’s ridings, a majority is pretty much out of the question, unless one the two main federalist parties sweeps Ontario as the Liberals under Jean Chrétien did in the 90’s. But right now, the Grits and the Tories are locked in dead heat in Canada’s most seat-rich province.
Once more, Ontario will determine who gets the keys to 24 Sussex Drive.
