Obama's Missing Afghan Metrics

David Sanger reports that the Obama administration committed additional forces and resources into Afghanistan without clearly articulating what success there would look like:

When President Obama unveiled his new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan in March, he emphasized the importance of these measures.

“We will set clear metrics to measure progress and hold ourselves accountable,” Mr. Obama said. “We’ll consistently assess our efforts to train Afghan security forces and our progress in combating insurgents. We will measure the growth of Afghanistan’s economy and its illicit narcotics production. And we will review whether we are using the right tools and tactics to make progress towards accomplishing our goals.”

All that now seems unlikely to be completed before his field commanders finish their proposals for carrying out their marching orders. Their recommendations were originally due at the Pentagon within the next two weeks, but Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates issued expanded instructions for the assessment to the commanders last weekend and gave them until September to complete their report.

One of the basic problems confronting the White House is that "success" in the context of Afghanistan is going to look pretty meager. Al Qaeda was driven out of the country in 2001. None of the other issues on the table - clearing out the Taliban, cleaning up the Kabul government - makes America significantly safer from Islamic radicals who can operate from any country around the world. To the extent that we want to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda again, why wouldn't drone strikes and bribes be able to accomplish as much as a full-bore nation building effort?

There is, as Stephen Biddle has said, the issue of Pakistan and the danger it would be in were Afghanistan to collapse. But how realistic is that scenario? Afghanistan was in abject chaos during the 1990s without it threatening the state of Pakistan. Quite the contrary, Pakistan found the situation quite useful as an opportunity to bolster parties it favored.

Another worry for the White House is declining support for the mission, particularly among Democrats. CNN reports:

Forty-one percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday say they favor the war in Afghanistan -- down 9 points from May, when CNN polling suggested that half of the public supported the war.

Fifty-four percent say they oppose the war in Afghanistan, up 6 points from May.

The administration may be able to skate by indefinitely without articulating metrics, but it will need to show results sooner rather than later.

Update: Peter Feaver, who's quoted in the Sanger piece, has more to say on the subject of metrics here.

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