Iran Thought Experiment

Subbing in at Stephen Walt's place, Cato's Justin Logan asks an interesting question:

If you were an Iranian government official or an adviser to the government, what would you suggest the government do? Should it seek to acquire a nuclear capability or try to negotiate a deal with the United States?

This is a trickier question now that we have seen major rifts develop in Iran's leadership. So let's posit that we're in the Supreme Leader's camp. I would think the best course would be to cut a deal, under the following conditions: Iran retains civilian nuclear facilities, under IAEA monitoring, with uranium enrichment done inside Iran. That is, I believe, within the bounds of the Non Proliferation Treaty. Keeping uranium enrichment inside Iran is a useful hedge - it would give the country the flexibility to covertly develop a break-out capacity if the need or desire arose while still complying with international law. It delivers the benefits of civilian nuclear power generation while keeping the potential of a nuclear weapon within reach.

A deal would also take a major source of heat off the regime, allowing it to focus on shoring up its internal position. True, making a deal with the West would signal weakness, which could embolden the regime's domestic opponents. But the Supreme Leader is in an objectively more precarious position now than he was several months ago. Trying to fake your way out of that by digging in on the nuclear issue would only set much larger problems (like a gasoline embargo or military strike) in train. Better to fight on fewer fronts.

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