Defining Success in Afghanistan

Peter Bergen takes issue with Stephen Walt's bleak view of nation building in Afghanistan:

The implication of Walt's objection to the ramped-up Obama strategy in Afghanistan is that the U.S. should either do less in Afghanistan, or even just get out altogether. But America has already gone down this road. Twice. In 1989 the U.S. closed its embassy in Kabul and then effectively zeroed out aid to one of the poorest countries in the world; meanwhile Afghanistan was racked by a civil war, which spawned the Taliban who then gave safe haven to al Qaeda.

Then in the winter of 2001 the Bush administration overthrew the Taliban, and because of its aversion to nation-building rebuilt the country on the cheap and quickly got distracted by the war in Iraq. Into the resulting vacuum stepped a resurgent Taliban. This time the movement of religious warriors was much more closely aligned with al Qaeda.

So the U.S. has already tried the Do Nothing approach and the Do It Light approach in Afghanistan, the results of which are well known. The Obama administration is now attempting a Do It Seriously approach, which has a real chance of success.

OK. But what if we succeed? Does that mean there's no more al Qaeda? That international terrorism directed at the U.S. or Western targets is finished?

It's not hard to envision a scenario where the U.S. turns back the Taliban insurgency and drives it into Pakistan. Let's further envision Richard Holbrooke manages to convince Pakistan to divert more resources toward fighting the Taliban, and we manage to grind them further inside Pakistan. A couple of lucky drone strikes and we kill bin Laden and a few of his senior deputies. That's all good, so far. But presumably at this point, those with a stake in waging jihad against the West are going to get wise to the situation and try to escape. Some can't get out, but others do. There's no shortage of places for them to go, and Pakistan would be all too willing to let them leave. Then what?

Does the next state where al Qaeda takes root get subjected to "Do It Seriously?"

(AP Photos)