Would the GOP Turn on Afghanistan?

Stephen Biddle has a must-read article in the current issue of the American Interest examining whether the war in Afghanistan is worth the costs. He concludes that it is, barely. But since this is a blog, let's pull out one the one questionable passage shall we:

The coming Afghanistan debate is unlikely to get as vitriolic as the one over in Iraq in 2006–07. That affair erupted from a potent mix of partisanship and anger at perceived deceit, and so is unlikely to recur. But the political problems the new antiwar movement will pose for Obama could actually be harder to overcome than those the Iraq opposition posed for Bush. After all, Bush was able to circle the wagons, rally his base, and push an unpopular position through Congress by holding the Republican Party together, thereby forcing congressional Democrats to either unite behind a different approach to Iraq or acquiesce in Republican policies. Democrats chose the latter, giving President Bush the freedom to conduct the war as he wished.

Obama, by contrast, heads a Democratic Party that is already divided on the Afghan war and likely to grow more so over time. He also faces a series of domestic crises that will require him to spend political capital in order to win support for his governing agenda. Republicans have shown little willingness to cooperate on anything else, and the Administration’s new ownership of the Afghanistan war gives the GOP another opportunity to retreat into opposition as the news from the front gets worse. Obama could face a situation in which a bipartisan antiwar coalition threatens the majority he will need to maintain funding for an increasingly unpopular war.

Does this sound plausible to you? The Republicans have spent an awful long time attacking the Democrats on their withdrawal proposals for Iraq. I would think it would be hard for them to suddenly pivot and demand a withdrawal from Afghanistan. But politics is a funny business and Republicans may suddenly rediscover their well founded skepticism of nation building. Unfortunately, it will be many years too late.

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